Currently, a fairly quiet week across North America, which is a nice break after back-to-back weeks of storms. I, and many others in this office, will take it!
Currently, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is in its positive phase, which is keeping most of the cold across the north, while a stronger Pacific jet is delivering milder air across southern Canada and into the U.S.
There are some indications that the AO will begin to trend toward the negative phase by the end of the month, which could mean a busier start to December, despite what the ECMWF model says below.
Anyway, here is my latest interpretation of the ECMWF model long-range output that now goes into December.
Some forecast model clues through the end of August and an update on global sea surface temperatures.
Tornado threat into Tuesday from southeastern Saskatchewan to northwest Ontario.
Latest weekly clues to the long range forecast through mid-August.
Major storm for the Prairies early next week could bring heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms.
Severe thunderstorm threat later Thursday and a general look at the upcoming weather pattern.
Latest long-range update and a look at global ocean temperatures.