Even though there will no doubt be more spells of very warm air across BC and Alberta over the next month, I do believe that the worst of summer's heat is over across that region.
Across eastern Canada, the trend will be for warmer, more typical August conditions as we approach the last week of the month.
The ECMWF forecast model image below shows the projected average temperature anomalies across the country for the next seven-day period.
Major cooling for the Prairies into next week.
Across western Canada, the two ECMWF images below compares the temperature anomalies last evening to what they are projected to be on Tuesday, Aug. 26.
Potential for significant rainfall over the eastern Prairies later this weekend.
A strengthening storm system will track northeastward toward Manitoba late this weekend and will likely produce a swath of moderate to heavy rainfall from southern Saskatchewan to parts of Manitoba. Confidence is high that there will be an area of heavy rainfall, but the exact placement is still in question. The computer model maps (ECMWF & GFS) below show predicted 48-hour total rainfall ending Monday morning.
As you can see, both models show the potential for over 4 inches/100 mm of rain over southeastern Saskatchewan during the period.
Update on sea surface temperature anomalies surrounding North America.
The two images below show the average sea surface temperature anomalies for the last full week.
As you can see, sea surface temperatures remain nearly 4 degrees C above normal around Newfoundland, while we also see a large pocket of warmer-than-normal waters in the eastern Pacific.
Note: just wanted to mention that there is the potential for strong thunderstorms later this afternoon over extreme southern Alberta. Storms will have the potential to produce large hail and damaging winds, in addition to the heavy rainfall.
Mild start to November for many, but significant pattern changes are possible mid-late November.
Update on the snow potential across eastern Canada tonight into Friday.
Update on snow potential in the East and the latest clues to the long range.
Update on major eastern storm into the weekend.
Major storm system will bring heavy rain, followed by strong winds, falling temperatures and possible high elevation snow into this weekend over the East.
The 2016/2017 winter forecast for Canada has a snowy look for many.