Great swimming/boating/fishing weather next week in the east
Much of eastern Canada will experience above- to much above-normal temperatures from Monday through Thursday next week as a strong ridge of high pressure aloft builds across the region and forces the jet stream well to the north.
This ridge will also keep a pretty good lid on thunderstorm activity as the air aloft will be warm, which prevents clouds from growing into big thunderstorms during the day.
However, there will still be some spotty late-afternoon thunderstorms across Ontario and Quebec during the period, especially where large lake breezes interact with a land breeze. Any thunderstorms that do form will be slow-movers with the potential for heavy, localized rainfall.
More long-range forecast clues for the upcoming fall and winter
The U.S. based Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has released an update of their experimental NMME, which is a multi-model ensemble forecast which goes out into the winter. We also have the IMME (international based multi-model) forecast for the upcoming fall, but not the winter quite yet.
Below are the predicted temperature and precipitation anomalies for the fall and winter. Again, these are useful tools, but certainly do not treat these as gospel. Model performance drops significantly going out two months and beyond, but the science is getting better and the development of a multi-model ensemble is great idea.
NMME temperature forecast for fall 2013
NMME precipitation forecast for fall 2013
IMME temperature forecast for fall 2013
IMME precipitation forecast for fall 2013
NMME temperature forecast for winter 2013-14
NMME precipitation forecast for winter 2013-14
By the way, AccuWeather.com will be issuing our own fall 2013 forecast in August.
My latest interpretation of the weekly long-range forecast model.
A look at the weather pattern across Canada into next week.
This is the AccuWeather.com fall forecast for Canada, which includes the months of September, October and November 2014.
A pattern shift later next week and a look at the potential weather into mid-September.
Significant rain coming for Quebec and a look back at July.
Smoke and haze and a look at the long range into early September.