Brett Anderson

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More Clues for the Upcoming Fall and Winter

July 12, 2013; 9:08 AM ET

Great swimming/boating/fishing weather next week in the east

Much of eastern Canada will experience above- to much above-normal temperatures from Monday through Thursday next week as a strong ridge of high pressure aloft builds across the region and forces the jet stream well to the north.

This ridge will also keep a pretty good lid on thunderstorm activity as the air aloft will be warm, which prevents clouds from growing into big thunderstorms during the day.

However, there will still be some spotty late-afternoon thunderstorms across Ontario and Quebec during the period, especially where large lake breezes interact with a land breeze. Any thunderstorms that do form will be slow-movers with the potential for heavy, localized rainfall.


More long-range forecast clues for the upcoming fall and winter

The U.S. based Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has released an update of their experimental NMME, which is a multi-model ensemble forecast which goes out into the winter. We also have the IMME (international based multi-model) forecast for the upcoming fall, but not the winter quite yet.

Below are the predicted temperature and precipitation anomalies for the fall and winter. Again, these are useful tools, but certainly do not treat these as gospel. Model performance drops significantly going out two months and beyond, but the science is getting better and the development of a multi-model ensemble is great idea.

NMME temperature forecast for fall 2013

NMME precipitation forecast for fall 2013

IMME temperature forecast for fall 2013

IMME precipitation forecast for fall 2013

NMME temperature forecast for winter 2013-14

NMME precipitation forecast for winter 2013-14


By the way, will be issuing our own fall 2013 forecast in August.

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or


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About This Blog

Brett Anderson
Brett Anderson covers both short-term and long-term weather and storm forecasts for Canada in this blog for