The updated ECMWF long range seasonal forecast was released yesterday. In addition to the temperature and rainfall anomaly forecast for the summer, the model also shows......
1. ENSO phase shifting to weak/moderate El Nino by the end of summer according to its ensemble forecast.
2. Below-normal tropical activity in the central Atlantic (less Cape Verde storms), but slightly above normal activity off the Southeast U.S. coast as storms may form not too far off the coast instead of long tracking ones that form over the central Atlantic.
3. Above-normal temperatures over eastern North America for the first half of Fall.
Latest clues to the long range through May.
Pattern looking rather chilly next week in the East while the eastern Prairies struggle for precipitation.
A look back at the 2015-16 seasonal snowfall forecast and the actual verifications across selected sites in Canada.
The super El Nino is steadily collapsing. Is a La Nina possible later in the year?
Winterlike cold will gradually lose its grip on the east later next week as the pattern slowly transitions to one that is more typical of April.
Another in a series of Alberta Clipper storms will bring snow to parts of eastern Canada through early Thursday.