Here are my latest thoughts as of Tuesday afternoon on the incoming snowstorm for parts of eastern and Atlantic Canada from Wednesday into Thursday....
1. Computer models are in very good agreement with the track and intensity of the storm, which gives us higher confidence in the forecast.
2. This will be an all-snow event for Ontario, Quebec and interior New Brunswick. Snow will likely change to sleet/freezing rain or rain over extreme southern/eastern New Brunswick, PEI and northern Nova Scotia then go back to snow before ending.
3. Northerly winds will drive very cold air well to the south on the back side of this storm, so any standing slush or water will quickly freeze as the storm passes east of a given longitude.
4. The combination of wind and cold will make it feel more like 25-30 below zero C Thursday morning over southern Ontario and near 30 below over eastern Ontario and into the Montreal area.
5. Blizzardlike conditions are likely Wednesday night and early Thursday morning from extreme southeastern Quebec into Maine and then over into northern and central New Brunswick.
6. Clearly, the heaviest snowfall will be over northern New England, extreme southeast Quebec and into the northern half of New Brunswick as the bulk of the snow in this area will fall at night and the storm will reach its peak. In southern Ontario, the bulk of the snow will be during the day on Wednesday and thus there will be less snow on the paved roads/parking lots compared to the grassy areas.
7. The snowfall forecast map that I drew up last night is not too bad, but I will probably shift the axis of heaviest snow a little more to the north and west.
Here are my updated forecast amounts for selected locations.........
Windsor... 14-18 cm
Toronto... 12-18 cm
London... 15-20 cm
Hamilton... 18-23 cm
St. Catharines... 20-28 cm
Peterborough... 10-15 cm
Barrie... 6-11 cm
Kingston... 15-20 cm
Ottawa... 12-17 cm
Montreal... 20-25 cm
Sherbrooke... 28-34 cm
Quebec... 14-20 cm
Edmunston... 20-28 cm
Fredericton... 30-40 cm
Saint John... 8-14 cm then sleet/ice early Thursday am followed by some snow again... slight track shift could have major impact on amounts.
Moncton... 12-25 cm then over to sleet then back to snow.... tough call here
Charlottetown... 6-12 cm Wednesday evening then sleet/ice Wednesday night over to rain late Wednesday night/early Thursday
Halifax... very little snow then rain.
Potent cold front will advance from the Prairies to the East later this week.
Thunderstorms in the short range while warmth dominates in the long range.
The upcoming summer will be very warm across a majority of southern Canada with reduced rainfall.
A Colorado low brings snow, ice and strong winds to southern Manitoba.
Long-range forecast model clues into mid-June.
A quick Tuesday update on the weekly long-range forecast model output and El Nino.