Brett Anderson

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Update on the Long Range Through Mid-March

February 19, 2013; 11:15 PM

Here is my latest interpretation of the ECMWF bi-weekly long-range forecast model output for North America...

There is pretty good consensus that there will be a weak to moderate blocking pattern in place from the Hudson Bay region through northeast Canada into the first week of March, which would lead to a colder-than-normal pattern farther south across parts of southern Canada and the U.S., while northern/northeast Canada remains warmer than normal. However, this type of pattern should continue to support more storminess (cutoff lows) across the central/eastern U.S. and perhaps southeastern Canada than what this model is showing for the week of March 4-10.

It appears that the model has a higher amount of uncertainty for the final week (March 11-17) as it shows little, if any, commitment to a particular upper-level pattern, so take that week with a grain of salt with this particular run. Hopefully, it will get some type of handle on the pattern for that week on the next run that comes out Thursday evening.

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or


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Brett Anderson
Brett Anderson covers both short-term and long-term weather and storm forecasts for Canada in this blog for