Here is my updated snowfall forecast map for the storm coming tomorrow (Sat) and into Saturday night.
--While this will not be a wound up storm (not a lot of wind), it will still produce a narrow band of moderate to heavy snow along and just north of the track.
--The fast movement of the storm will also lessen the severity in terms of total snowfall.
--Based on the expected track, we should see the snow change to rain Saturday afternoon near the north shore region of Lake Erie and then Saturday evening up through the Niagara region and perhaps for a time right along the immediate Lake Ontario shore. Snow should also go over to rain around Kingston, Ontario due to the southeast wind downsloping off the higher Adirondacks.
--I think the snow will change to rain right along the immediate lake in Toronto Saturday evening, but will probably stay all snow especially from the 401 corridor on north of the city.
--I realize that some computer models are colder looking due to the fact that they are predicting a weaker system that tracks a little farther to the south. However, I like the idea of a slightly stronger and farther north track. I also believe there are some issues with the ECMWF model low level temperatures (cold bias).
--The storm will begin to shear out a bit Saturday night as it moves into Quebec/New Brunswick and thus the precipitation rates will diminish a bit. The bulk of the snow for the Montreal to Quebec City region will come Saturday night.
--Even in areas where I think there will be a change to rain there will still be several hours of steady snow in most cases. Rainfall totals will generally be light, so not concerned about flooding.
--Snow will begin around 8am Sat in the Windsor area, 11am around the GTA, 4pm Sat in Ottawa and 5-6pm around Montreal.
--Snow should change to rain along the north shore of Lake Erie region late in the afternoon Sat, but may wait until after 6pm right along the western Lake Ontario shore communities. Snow will likely change to rain in Kingston just after midnight.
--Travel conditions up the 400 between Toronto and Barrie will deteriorate especially after 3pm Sat.
--Other expected snow accumulations from this storm....
Fredericton, NB...6-12 cm
Saint John, NB...4-8 cm
Long range thoughts
--Potential for a significant winter storm still exists for southern/central/eastern Ontario, Quebec and New Brunswick Tue nt-Wed time period next week. Latest computer modeling consensus would argue for heaviest snow from near London, Ont through Barrie then up into Ottawa and across into northern New Brunswick. Keep in mind, it is still very early and the area that gets the heaviest snow could and probably will shift around over the next few days.
--Much wetter pattern possibly shaping up for BC for the week of Feb 10th-16th as a trough sets up over the Gulf of Alaska. This is potentially good news for BC ski areas that would love to have more snow.
--There are some indications of a possible stratospheric warming event starting in about 8-10 days from Greenland toward the pole. If this does occur, then there is the potential for a blocking type pattern to form a few weeks later (end of Feb/early March) which could lead to another southward push of Arctic air through southern Canada and deep into the U.S. It could also turn stormy along the East Coast. I will keep you posted over the next couple of weeks.
Questions or comments? Feel free to interact with me on my twitter @BrettAWX or email me at right here.
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Some forecast clues to the weather pattern into late October.
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Here are my latest thoughts on upcoming weather pattern highlights across canada for the next few weeks.