No significant changes to our thinking in regards to the elevated severe thunderstorm threat for eastern Canada on Friday.
Based on our latest thinking, here is my best estimate for the time window of severe thunderstorms in selected cities for Friday. Keep in mind, there could be spotty storms before and after these times. This is an estimate for most likely period for the strongest storms.
Ottawa, Ontario..... 2-6 p.m. Friday
Toronto, Ontario.... 4-7 p.m. Friday
Windsor, Ontario..... 3-6 p.m. Friday
London, Ontario.... 4-7 p.m. Friday
Barrie, Ontario..... 3-5 p.m. Friday
Hamilton, Ontario.... 5-8 p.m. Friday
Peterborough, Ontario... 4-7 p.m. Friday
Kingston, Ontario.... 6-8 p.m. Friday
Montreal, Quebec.... 5-8 p.m. Friday
Quebec City, Quebec... 4-7 p.m. Friday
northwest New Brunswick... 6-8 p.m. Friday
The front does slow its forward speed a little more than what we thought for Saturday, which is not surprising since it is July and the strength of the high pressure ridge to the south. With that in mind, we may see some thunderstorms early Saturday across extreme southern Ontario as the cold front approaches then pushes south later in the afternoon, though the main threat for severe weather will be across the Northeast U.S.
I will post the weekly long-range stuff later this evening.
Update on White Christmas probabilities for Canada
Update on the long-range forecast model data.
A look a the storm systems that could impact Christmas Eve and Christmas Day in Canada.
What are your current chances for a white Christmas?
Here is our latest storm snowfall forecast map for Quebec and New Brunswick.
Storms will target the East and the West once again this week.