I have outlined the area for potential severe thunderstorms into this evening (Wed). The strongest storms should be widely scattered but could produce damaging winds and hail as they track toward the northeast.
The main tornado threat still looks to be Thursday afternoon and evening from eastern Alberta to southern Saskatchewan.
As the strong upper low approaches central Alberta during the day Thursday, the atmosphere will get very unstable between Edmonton and Red Deer and thus we could see some storms will large hail. I think the tornado threat will be not too far east of the Edmonton/Red Deer where the dew points are higher and continue into south-central Saskatchewan.
As I stated yesterday, once the low passes by to the east or north, the west to northwest winds will get quite strong Thursday afternoon and night coming down off the mountains to the west with the greatest potential for damaging winds over extreme southwestern Alberta and just east of Glacier National Park in Montana.
Previous blog from Tuesday....
Much-needed rain will overspread southern BC during the day Wednesday and continue into a part of Thursday as a more fall-like storm system moves inland.
The map below shows the potential rainfall in mm from Wednesday through Thursday.
This unusually strong, upper-level storm system tracking in from BC will intersect a surge of warm, humid air up into Saskatchewan Thursday.
The result of this will be widespread thunderstorms from extreme eastern Alberta through Saskatchewan Thursday into early Thursday night.
The greatest threat for damaging thunderstorms (large hail, strong winds) and tornadoes will be over southwestern and south-central Saskatchewan Thursday afternoon and evening.
On the back side of the storm, strong west to northwest winds will impact western and southwestern Alberta Thursday afternoon and night with gusts in excess of 90 km/h in some of the typically windier locations in the foothills.
Farther east, the leading edge of cooler, less humid air will trigger strong thunderstorms from western New Brunswick, Maine and southeastern Quebec to the Ohio Valley. The main threat with these storms will be straight-line wind damage.
Still no signs of any sustained heat in eastern Canada through the end of the month as another strong trough will set up across the region. At the same time, the ridge will rebuild over the West with the possible return of hot, dry conditions from the Pacific Northwest into western Canada next week.
You can also follow me for updates on the weather on my twitter @BrettAWX
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There are growing indications that the stratosphere over the north pole may experience a major warming event in about 10 days.
Major thaw for the East later next week, but winter may make a comeback toward the end of the month and into early February.
The weather pattern will undergo a significant change across Canada and the U.S. by next week.
The storm that will bring a rare, heavy snowfall to the Carolinas and Virginia tonight into early Saturday will intensify as it moves out over the Atlantic waters on Saturday. This will set the stage for a quick-hitting snowstorm centered over Nova Scotia later Saturday into early Sunday.
Major winter storm to impact eastern Quebec and northern New Brunswick late Thursday through midday Friday.