Brett Anderson

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Heavy Rain Potential in the East Late this Week

June 3, 2013; 3:06 PM ET

May 2013 temperatures

Before I get to this week, the image below shows the preliminary temperature anomalies for May 2013.

Note the widespread warmth across western Canada , while there was a distinct region of unseasonably cool temperatures for eastern Manitoba and much of northwest Ontario. The Gulf Coast also experienced a cooler May compared to normal.

Thoughts on this week

--Steady rain will continue to retreat southward into the northern U.S. Plains this evening and out of the the extreme southwestern Prairies.

--Potential thunderstorm threat for the Prairies later Thursday and/or Friday. Timing is still up in the air with this.

--Area of low pressure near the Yucatan Peninsula will likely organize over the next couple of days as it tracks north or northeast. This system will dump heavy rainfall over Florida this week then it will likely get drawn up the eastern seaboard from Friday through the weekend and could bring heavy rainfall and potential flooding anywhere from Ontario through the Maritimes. Modeling is all over the place with the timing, strength and track of this storm system that will be loaded with tropical moisture.

The latest Canadian model runs the storm up the Appalachians which would bring the heavy rainfall into Ontario at the end of the week. Other models are faster and farther east. Until this storm gets further organized and moves away from the Yucatan will we (and the modeling) have better answers to what will happen late in the week across the Northeast U.S. and eastern Canada.

--The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is projected to go negative late this week and next week. This normally produces above-normal temperatures across Atlantic Canada and the western Prairies, while cooler and wetter conditions are likely for the Southeast U.S.

--Based on what I have been looking at since this morning, it looks like much of Ontario and Quebec can expect near to below-normal temperatures over the next 8-10 days.

--Over the next week or so we may see an uptick in thunderstorms over southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba as an active jet stream sets up overhead, dividing the very warm air over the northern U.S. Rockies from cooler conditions over northern Manitoba and northern Ontario.

--Just took a look at the latest ECMWF model and it is slower and slightly farther west, though not as far west as the Canadian model, with the tropical low pressure area coming up from the Gulf. The ECMWF track would suggest that the heaviest rain would run up through the Middle Atlantic Friday then into NY/New England and then Quebec and the western Maritimes Friday night and Saturday.

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About This Blog

Brett Anderson
Brett Anderson covers both short-term and long-term weather and storm forecasts for Canada in this blog for AccuWeather.com.