Summer and Fall Computer Model Forecast Update

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Brett Anderson

Summer and Fall Computer Model Forecast Update

June 15, 2011; 11:53 AM

Our in-house system just received the updated extended long-range seasonal forecast from the ECMWF model.

The model is trending warmer over the rest of the summer across a large part of Canada.

The model now also forecasts through fall 2011.

It appears that the model is forecasting a higher-than-normal chance of a tropical cyclone hit on Newfoundland during the heart of the hurricane season.

Based on what I am seeing from the model, I would not be surprised to see a steady increase in the global temperature anomaly through the end of the year as the influence of La Nina ceases.

Here is the updated ECMWF temperature and rainfall anomaly forecast for the period from July to September 2011.

Here is the ECMWF temperature and rainfall anomaly forecast for the upcoming fall.

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com

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