Early Thursday morning total storm snowfall update from Ontario, via EC. Waiting on Quebec.
We will finally move on from this storm on the next post later today and focus on the weekend and beyond.
Wednesday evening snowfall total update from Ontario
Environment Canada has released an update of the storm snowfall for Ontario......
Earlier Wednesday update
Steady snow has shifted up into the Ottawa, Cornwall and Montreal region. Snow in these areas will become lighter from southwest to northeast late tonight as the best dynamics shift farther north and east as the upper-low drifts east and slowly weakens.
Some snowfall totals from earlier today, via EC and some of my twitter followers.... Many areas ended up in the lower end or below of our forecast range, though some of the more northern and western locations ended up in the middle of the range.
Windsor... 11 cm
Kitchener... 14 cm
Waterloo... 13 cm
Fergus... 17 cm
Brampton... 14 cm
Waterdown... 15 cm
Toronto... 11 cm on avg.
Thornhill... 17 cm
Aurora... 16 cm
Orangeville... 19 cm
Barrie... 14 cm
Whitby... 10 cm
Schomberg and London... 10 cm
These amounts are not final, so they may end up a little higher.
A moist Pacific system will tack along western U.S./Canada border and has the potential to bring accumulating snow from central and southern Alberta to southern Saskatchewan later Sunday and Sunday night. I will address this more tomorrow.
Strong blocking over northeast Canada should force the above storm tracking into the northern Plains on Monday far enough to the south Tuesday and Wednesday resulting in minimal impact for Ontario/Quebec. It is too early to say if this will turn the corner and hit Atlantic Canada later next week.
Heavier precipitation rates that were anticipated across the Golden Horseshoe region were much more brief and spotty than what was expected, thus longer periods of lighter precipitation (more time for the lighter snowflakes to melt into rain on their way down to the ground) led to more mixing and less snowfall. I see Pearson International (Toronto) has reported 10 cm so far.
Easterly downslope winds coming down off the Adirondacks are the usual reason for the lower forecasted amounts in and around Kingston, Ontario.
The primary surface low also drifted a little farther north than what was expected from yesterday, allowing just enough mid-level warming and some drier air to mix in.
The map below shows the expected snowfall through Thursday evening. Lighter snows should persist through much of the evening across southern Ontario.
Mixed precipitation will limit snowfall amounts across extreme southern New Brunswick and northern Nova Scotia on Thursday, with the highest amounts across central New Brunswick.
By the way, the latest ECMWF weeklies indicate a cold first half of March from the eastern Prairies through Ontario, southern Quebec and the eastern half of the U.S. More on that later.
The latest on the ECMWF model weeklies....
Heavy rain will continue into Friday across the western Prairies with snow in the higher elevations.
We have potential severe weather in the East this evening and the potential for heavy rainfall Thursday and Friday for parts of Alberta.
Potential for strong thunderstorms again Wednesday.
The Accuweather.com summer forecast for Canada.
Rainy period for the northern Plains and parts of Manitoba and Ontario this weekend and early next week....