Latest computer models trended faster, farther south and not as strong with the East Coast storm for Thursday into Friday, thus reducing the threat for significant snowfall and wind over the Maritimes. A lack of upstream blocking is partly responsible for this weaker, faster solution.
Still appears that the greatest threat for heavy accumulations is over southern New England. The map below shows expected snowfall from the storm. The snowfall forecast may still seem high over New England and eastern Pennsylvania, but this will be a cold storm and thus the liquid to snowfall ratios will be higher than normal (fluffier snow).
Most of the snow across southern Ontario will be due to moist air overrunning the Arctic front Wed/Thur, resulting in a light, powdery snow with a general 2-8 cm, though we may see a little more down toward Windsor and also between Hamilton and St. Catharines due to some lake enhancement as the cold, northeast wind pushes across the lake.
Thursday night into Friday will be bitterly cold from Ontario to New Brunswick as the core of Arctic air moves in.
A major amplification of the pattern will likely take place early next week and this will likely lead to a storm tracking up from the south-central states toward the eastern Great Lakes. East of the storm track it will likely turn milder with snow changing to rain, while west of the storm track there could be significant snow. Regardless of the track, once the storm moves north a second surge of frigid air and wind will roar into eastern Canada and the U.S. with the potential for widespread, heavy lake-effect snow.
Updated look at the long range and potential El Nino later this year.
Back from Toronto and the snow....
Weekly long range update into the second week of May....
The seasonal updates of the ECMWF and the National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) have been released with monthly outlooks for temperature and precipitation.
Update on the long range through early May.
A look at how extensive the cold was in March and an update into the first week of May.