Coastal storm now beginning to organize just south of Long Island, NY as of Tuesday afternoon and will continue to intensify as it tracks northeastward toward Nova Scotia Wednesday morning.
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Based on the expected track, I believe the heaviest snow will fall across the southern and eastern half of New Brunswick and up through extreme western PEI very late tonight and through Wednesday.
I also expect a several hour period of steady snow coming up through Nova Scotia late tonight into the first half of Wednesday before it changes to sleet and rain, especially across the southern and eastern two-thirds. Snowfall will be higher across the northern third of Nova Scotia, but the combination of some sleet (from warmer air aloft) and a possible dry slot could be an inhibiting factor for the later part of the storm.
Travel especially between Fredericton, Saint John, Moncton and Amherst is not recommended, especially Wednesday morning through the early afternoon with snowfall rates as high as 2-5 cm per hour with poor visibility and blowing snow.
We took the snowfall forecast up from the previous map for the southeastern third of New Brunswick and western PEI as it looks like this storm will strengthen even more quickly than what I thought yesterday, which will lead to the higher snowfall rates.
Farther east, the Sydney area will likely get about 8-10 cm of snow Wednesday morning and midday before changing to rain in the afternoon.
The St. John's area could see about 8-12 cm of snow late in the day Wednesday into the early evening before the changeover.
Still a lot of uncertainty in regards to a potential storm system for eastern and Atlantic Canada this coming weekend.
Regardless if this ends up as two, weaker storms or one, stronger storm, the weekend system will be loaded with moisture as warm, moist air gets lifted over the cold dome that will be sitting over eastern Canada.
At this point, I favor the heaviest snow (in excess of 15 cm) falling from the Bruce Peninsula to between North Bay and Barrie then over to the Ottawa region and close to Montreal and Quebec Saturday night into Sunday.
Farther south, we may be looking at a snow to mix to possibly rain situation in the GTA, while its likely to be more liquid than frozen over SW Ontario.
If this ends up being one, main storm then it will likely track farther north, with warmer air getting farther north. If it remains two, weaker storms then the cold holds on and we see more snow for places like London and Toronto.
I will keep you posted through the week.
Snow for SW BC Thursday night and Friday
A storm system tracking southeast later this week will run into an established cold air mass over BC leading to snow all the way to the coast before the cold air eventually gets pushed out and a change to rain takes place.
The main window for snow over SW BC appears to be from Thursday night through midday Friday.
Right now, I can see how Vancouver ends up with anywhere from 4-10 cm of snow before the changeover with similar amounts out toward Abbotsford, where it will be colder, but not as moist. Slight higher elevations just outside of the Vancouver and Surrey areas will likely end up with at least 12 cm.
Even in Victoria there could be a 2-3 cm of snow Thursday night before changing to rain by Friday morning. Amounts will be higher as you go north and northwest over Vancouver Island.
I will have better details on this potential snow event tomorrow and Thursday.
Update on White Christmas probabilities for Canada
Update on the long-range forecast model data.
A look a the storm systems that could impact Christmas Eve and Christmas Day in Canada.
What are your current chances for a white Christmas?
Here is our latest storm snowfall forecast map for Quebec and New Brunswick.
Storms will target the East and the West once again this week.