Here is my own initial snowfall forecast I drew up at home this morning for the storm which will impact parts of eastern Canada starting late tonight and through Friday evening.
The GFS/ECMWF models are fairly similar with the track and intensity of the storm, putting areas just north of London and Toronto in the heaviest snowfall, while the NAM continues to show a stronger, slightly farther south storm which would put London and the Greater Toronto area in the heart of the heavy snow with at least 20 cm. Right now, I will lean with the GFS/ECMWF combo with consideration of the NAM.
Roads will be slippery Friday morning from London to Kitchener and the GTA as the snow begins before dawn, which allows it to get a head start accumulating on the roads at this time of year. Much of the snow from Ottawa to Montreal will start during the middle of the day, which will cut down on the road accumulation due to the higher angle of the February sun.
Obviously, this will be the biggest snowfall of the season for many.
The storm should be all snow north of the dashed red line.
We just updated the AccuWeather.com storm snowfall forecast map and this goes through Friday night and extends up into the Maritimes. Expect a period of wet snow for most of Nova Scotia before a change to rain. Pretty good dump of snow for the northern two-thirds of New Brunswick and perhaps western PEI.
Be sure to follow me on my twitter account for quick updates on the weather pattern and storm updates BrettAWX
I will be checking my twitter through the day today and into the evening and will try to respond to some questions.
Back from Toronto and the snow....
Weekly long range update into the second week of May....
The seasonal updates of the ECMWF and the National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) have been released with monthly outlooks for temperature and precipitation.
Update on the long range through early May.
A look at how extensive the cold was in March and an update into the first week of May.
This is my latest interpretation of the ECMWF and CFSv2 weekly long-range forecast output.