Here is our latest snow forecast map for the clipper-like storm system that will bring accumulating snow to central/eastern Ontario tonight/Saturday morning then southern Quebec Saturday morning/midday and finally parts of the Maritimes Saturday afternoon/evening.
Main roads across this region will get slick later tonight into early Saturday morning then mostly wet/slushy during the afternoon hours due to the late March sun effect.
--Two shots of unseasonably cold air will follow the above storm over the 5 days then there are some growing signs that some milder air may return to the eastern half of Canada around the 30th or 31st.
--Computer models are in very good agreement in terms of showing a rapidly strengthening East Coast storm Tuesday into Wednesday. However, there are still some differences with the track, which has a big impact on who gets the heavy snow. Based on what I am seeing now, I lean toward a strong coastal storm tracking up toward eastern Nova Scotia later Wednesday with the potential for heavy snow, strong winds and possible blizzard conditions over the Maritimes on Wednesday and then into the western two-thirds of Newfoundland Wednesday night. Obviously, near and just east of the track there will likely be mixed precipitation or a change to rain. Folks in eastern New England also need to closely monitor this situation.
--The latest ECMWF weekly long range model which updated again last night looks a lot different than the Monday run of the model, which I interpreted on a previous blog. The new run is not nearly as cold and has more of a typical early springtime temperature look for southern Canada. The latest CFSv2 is still fairly cold from the Prairies to Quebec through the first week of April, but then warms significantly during the second week of April.
I am still hesitant to buy into the new ECMWF at this time due to the warming event in the stratosphere over the Arctic region, but we will see. I will keep you posted.
--Ice cover over the Great Lakes is slowly diminishing (77 % now) and should continue to do so despite two more shots of Arctic air. It is just getting too late in the season for growth due to the strengthening sun.
Progressive pattern across southern Canada over the next 6 to 10 days. Also a look at the sea surface temperature anomalies.
Forecast pattern clues through most of July.
Thunderstorms this weekend and a look at the long range.
Some new clues to the summer and fall season.
Amplified jet stream pattern will keep forecasters on their toes over the next week or so.
Weather pattern clues for the next several weeks.