Here is the latest ECMWF weekly long-range model output that goes into the end of March. The model continues to show persistent blocking across northeast Canada into March which means winter will not go be going away anytime soon for areas farther south.
Models have once again backed off the idea of a significant snowfall for a central and southern Nova Scotia Sunday/Sunday evening as they are showing a more progressive system that does not get drawn as far north as what they were just showing last night. I am still not totally sold on that as I have seen these type of systems end up slowing and turning a little more north than what the models have shown.
We still think there will be a small accumulation across southern Nova Scotia, but not a big storm at this point for Sunday.
The worst of this storm will be across central New England and there will also be some accumulating snow up into Quebec.
Storm early next week
A more significant storm system will move out of Colorado Sunday and track toward the lower Great Lakes before stalling as it encounters a strengthening blocking high farther to the northeast.
Based on the track, I would expect steady snow to overspread much of southern and central on Tuesday then reach eastern Ontario and southern Quebec by Tuesday night. With just enough cold air in place this should be a snow event for many, though we could see a snow to mix type situation south and west of the GTA.
Snow should continue into Wednesday, but the intensity will likely diminish as energy transfers toward the coast and the Great Lakes storm weakens. This will not be a cold storm (near freezing for many), so that roads should be fairly wet during the afternoon, but slippery at night with the higher sun angle.
Too early to be specific with amounts, but a general 8-15 cm, locally 20 cm is a first guess at this point across a large part of southern/central/eastern Ontario into southern Quebec as the duration of the event will be longer than normal.
With the block to the north, the energy of this storm should transfer toward the East Coast with the likely-hood of a secondary storm forming later Wednesday. Still too early to get a handle on the secondary, but it could lead to heavier snow coming back up into New England, eastern Quebec and the interior Maritimes Wednesday night through Thursday night.
Note: My computer cannot be fixed until Monday, so I will be unable to post any updates on this blog over the weekend since I will not be in the office.
However, I will post comments from time to time on my twitter through the weekend @BrettAWX
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Dry and hotter pattern in store for southern B.C. into next week, while the east turns cooler and more unsettled.
Potential for a significant storm later Sunday into Monday from Ontario to Quebec with heavy rain, severe thunderstorms, wind and snow.
Late-season snow for the western Prairies later this week and a look at the weekly long range pattern.