A disturbance across the Great Lakes will track east-southeast through tonight (Monday night) and spread thunderstorms from Michigan into southern Ontario from late this afternoon into tonight.
The greatest threat with these storms will be strong, straight-line winds and heavy downpours.
Strong thunderstorms capable of producing strong winds and hail will also track across southeastern Alberta and extreme southern Saskatchewan this afternoon and through the evening.
By Wednesday, a stronger system will produce more widespread showers and thunderstorms from southern Ontario through Quebec. At this point, I see the greatest potential for damaging thunderstorms from near Hamilton, Ontario, through Kingston, Ontario, and up into the Montreal, Quebec, area.
The new ECMWF forecast model monthlies (through the end of the year) are out, and I will discuss them on my next post.
This is my latest interpretation of the ECMWF forecast model that now goes out through the middle of May.
What the summer weather pattern might look like under a moderate to strong El Nino.
Weekly long-range forecast model update and a look back at March.
Forecast model updates provide some clues to the coming summer.
Friday afternoon update on the upcoming snow for parts of eastern and Atlantic Canada.
Below is my latest interpretation of weekly ECMWF forecast model update.