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Severe Thunderstorms this Weekend and El Nino Clue

June 08, 2012; 3:47 PM

A potent storm system with strong jet stream energy will track slowly northeastward this weekend. As this storm interacts with the heat surging northward through the Plains, there will be an outbreak of severe thunderstorms across the southeastern Prairies later Saturday then into northwestern Ontario Sunday/Sunday night.

The greatest threat from these thunderstorms will be large hail, wind gusts in excess of 90 km/h and perhaps an isolated tornado.

I also expect to see a cluster of storms tracking southeastward through parts of southern Ontario tonight and early Saturday with heavy downpours and frequent lightning.

The two maps below show where I think the greatest threat for severe weather will be this weekend.

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El Nino on the way?

There has been plenty of talk recently about a transition toward El Nino later this summer or fall. The new ECMWF forecast model seasonal forecast was just released today and the model has trended even stronger with its forecast toward El Nino conditions by late summer or fall.

The earlier May ECMWF forecast showed a trend toward a weak El Nino the second half of this year. The new June forecast updated ECMWF ensemble forecast is now pointing toward a moderate strength El Nino by the fall and then into the upcoming winter.

I will go over the possible implications of this on the next blog.

Keep in mind, this is just one model, but it is a good one.

One other thing, the new ECMWF model update has backed off on the heat and dryness across the Prairies for this summer. Part of that may be due to the recent wet conditions and increased soil moisture.

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com