Andrea will continue to track northeast along the Southeast U.S. coast through Friday then pass over or very close to Nova Scotia sometime later Saturday as basically a tropical rainstorm.
Computer models are in pretty decent agreement on the track north of 40 degrees and we are confident that the narrow band of heaviest rainfall will at least get up into Nova Scotia very late Friday night and Saturday. The question remains does the heavier rain get up into southern New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island on Saturday?
The latest GFS model rainfall forecast through Saturday night in inches.
At this point, I do think extreme southern New Brunswick and PEI get at least 25 mm of rain out of this, but that the most likely area to see the 50 mm and possibly greater amounts will be Nova Scotia.
The good news is that flooding should be localized and I think 75 mm will be about the high end of the rainfall since Andrea will be moving at a steady clip on Saturday.
In terms of wind, the strongest winds will likely remain offshore, but I can see some southeast gusts in the 70 km/h range along the south coast of Nova Scotia Saturday.
Potential for strong thunderstorms for Friday afternoon
Conditions still look ripe for locally strong thunderstorms from southern Alberta to southwestern Saskatchewan Friday afternoon and evening. The combination of a disturbance tracking southeast, increasing heat to the south and a rise in dew point from the southeast should be enough to produce some strong storms that could bring hail and possibly damaging winds.
Here are my latest thoughts on upcoming weather pattern highlights across canada for the next few weeks.
Frost and freeze across parts of eastern Canada and the interior Northeast U.S. later this week, while the West gets into another warm/dry spell this weekend and into early next week.
An update on clues to the pattern through the second week of October.
Latest snowfall totals from Alberta and a look at the potential for damaging thunderstorms over southern Ontario later Wednesday.
Update for the upcoming snow and cold headed for the Prairies.
Snow and cold coming for the Rockies into the western prairies next week.