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Random Thoughts

Jan 24, 2012; 3:26 PM ET

Other than the West Coast, today is a fairly blah day in terms of weather across Canada. Not much to see folks, but I have some comments about the upcoming weather this week and beyond...

1. Heavy rain continues to pound parts of Vancouver Island with strong winds. The rain will ease up by tomorrow (Wednesday). Snow levels in the mountains will lower once again tonight. The high resolution WRF model 24-hour snowfall forecast (inches) is shown below. This is for snowfall through early Wednesday morning. Image courtesy of the University of Washington.

A second, weaker storm will bring more coastal rain and mountain snow to southwestern BC Wednesday night.

2. Strong westerlies have taken over across North America like they did in December, delivering milder air across much of the continent, while the deep freeze has shifted back toward Alaska for the time being.

3. However, the jet stream will buckle late this week, allowing the cold air to come south through the eastern Prairies and into the Midwestern U.S. This air mass comes in for a couple days then moves out.

This air mass is more like your typical mid-winter cold shot, but too extreme.

4. The same system that is bringing the storminess to the West Coast today will race eastward over the next couple days and will bring a period of snow to southern Quebec and parts of New Brunswick Thursday night into early Friday. Right now, it does not look like a big storm, but one that could perhaps bring 12-15 cm to a few spots, while most places end up with 2-8 cm. Northern Nova Scotia could see some snow as well on Friday.

5. Long range computer models show little if any chances for sustained cold across western Canada through early February. Actually, if you just look at the weekly ECMWF model, temperatures across most of Canada well into February are above-normal as the Arctic air is on the other side of the pole.

6. Even though much of southern Canada and the northern U.S. may not see much in the way of sustained cold over the coming weeks, the type of pattern that the ECMWF is predicting is one where we could see plenty of mischief (meaning several, slow-moving storms with just enough cold air around them for decent snowfall)

I suspect February is going to be an especially challenging month for weather forecasters.

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com

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About This Blog

Brett Anderson
Brett Anderson covers both short-term and long-term weather and storm forecasts for Canada in this blog for AccuWeather.com.

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