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New Hints about the Upcoming Summer

Mar 15, 2011; 5:57 PM ET

The updated seasonal forecast from the ECMWF model, which is released just once a month, came out earlier today.

Here is what it shows for the upcoming summer season, which includes June, July and August......

Overall warmer-than-normal global temperatures, especially in the Southern Hemisphere. The main exceptions are the equatorial Pacific region, due to a slowly weakening La Nina, and Australia which are forecast to be cooler than normal. So does this mean that our most recent short-term drop in global temperature will level out or even begin to rise again this summer?

On a more regional scale, the model predicts the following for the summer of 2011....

1. Warmer than normal from the interior Western U.S. through the Southeast U.S.

2. Near-normal temperatures from the northern U.S. Plains to New England. This also includes much of southern Canada.

3. Cooler compared to normal right along the immediate West Coast of North America mainly due to a prevalence of below-normal water temperatures over the eastern Pacific.

4. Warmer than normal over Alaska.

5. Warmer than normal over most of northeastern Canada, including Labrador and Newfoundland, which makes sense due to the widespread above-normal surface water.

6. Slightly drier summer from southern BC to the Pacific Northwest, including the intermountain West of the U.S. and down to the Gulf region. Could this signal a bad fire season?

7. Slightly wetter from the Canadian Maritimes through Labrador.

8. Wetter than normal around the Caribbean which may signal an early start to the tropical season.

The ECMWF does extend out into September, which is the heart of Hurricane season and the following support the idea of an active Atlantic Hurricane season....

1. Lower-than-normal sea level pressure over the tropical breeding grounds of the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

2. Above-normal rainfall over the Caribbean.

Out in the Pacific....

1. Above-normal sea level pressure over a large part of the central and eastern tropical Pacific, which argues for a lower number of tropical cyclones in that region, but the model also shows much higher than normal precipitation from July through September over the western Tropical Pacific, which may be bad news (more cyclones) from north of Australia to the Philippines.

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com

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