This is my latest interpretation of the ECMWF long-range seasonal forecast output that gets updated once a month. This update goes through the upcoming winter.
Keep in mind, we have not released the AccuWeather.com winter or even fall forecast as of yet. We should have the full fall forecast for Canada released by the third week of August.
This particular model actually had one of the better, if not the best, seasonal long-range forecasts for last winter, which was a winter that delivered a number of surprises.
FALL 2012 MODEL FORECAST
WINTER 2012-13 MODEL FORECAST
A couple of notes about this ECMWF forecast........
1. The model has highest confidence in the above-normal winter temperatures across northern Canada/Alaska and the dryness over the Pacific Northwest. The Alaska forecast is the opposite of last year.
2. The model continues to show below-normal tropical storm/hurricane activity in the Atlantic/Gulf basin through the fall.
3. The model continues to predict weak to moderate El Nino conditions this fall and leveling off for the winter.
4. Keep in mind, precipitation forecasts have a higher error rate than temperature anomaly forecasts.
The coldest air mass of the season will spread into eastern Canada this weekend with the first snowflakes of the season for many.
My thoughts the pattern into next week and a look at the weekly model output into early November.
Oho will likely bring hurricane-force wind gusts and heavy rainfall to parts of coastal BC Thursday night into Friday.
Weather pattern clues through the end of October.
Major rainfall event for the Maritimes late tonight, Wednesday and Wednesday night. Heaviest rain headed for central New Brunswick.
Flood potential for portions of the Maritimes midweek.