This is my latest interpretation of the ECMWF long-range seasonal forecast output that gets updated once a month. This update goes through the upcoming winter.
Keep in mind, we have not released the AccuWeather.com winter or even fall forecast as of yet. We should have the full fall forecast for Canada released by the third week of August.
This particular model actually had one of the better, if not the best, seasonal long-range forecasts for last winter, which was a winter that delivered a number of surprises.
FALL 2012 MODEL FORECAST
WINTER 2012-13 MODEL FORECAST
A couple of notes about this ECMWF forecast........
1. The model has highest confidence in the above-normal winter temperatures across northern Canada/Alaska and the dryness over the Pacific Northwest. The Alaska forecast is the opposite of last year.
2. The model continues to show below-normal tropical storm/hurricane activity in the Atlantic/Gulf basin through the fall.
3. The model continues to predict weak to moderate El Nino conditions this fall and leveling off for the winter.
4. Keep in mind, precipitation forecasts have a higher error rate than temperature anomaly forecasts.
Extended Fall weather pattern into November.
West and East coast Canadian waters remain warmer than normal.....
No significant changes in thinking in regards to Gonzalo and a look at the latest long range models.
Update on Gonzalo as it heads to Bermuda then approaches southeast Newfoundland.
Heavy rainfall for Quebec Thursday and tracking Gonzalo.
Gonzalo a potential threat to Newfoundland this weekend and an updated look at the long range.