This is my latest interpretation of the ECMWF long-range seasonal forecast output that gets updated once a month. This update goes through the upcoming winter.
Keep in mind, we have not released the AccuWeather.com winter or even fall forecast as of yet. We should have the full fall forecast for Canada released by the third week of August.
This particular model actually had one of the better, if not the best, seasonal long-range forecasts for last winter, which was a winter that delivered a number of surprises.
FALL 2012 MODEL FORECAST
WINTER 2012-13 MODEL FORECAST
A couple of notes about this ECMWF forecast........
1. The model has highest confidence in the above-normal winter temperatures across northern Canada/Alaska and the dryness over the Pacific Northwest. The Alaska forecast is the opposite of last year.
2. The model continues to show below-normal tropical storm/hurricane activity in the Atlantic/Gulf basin through the fall.
3. The model continues to predict weak to moderate El Nino conditions this fall and leveling off for the winter.
4. Keep in mind, precipitation forecasts have a higher error rate than temperature anomaly forecasts.
Widespread above-normal temperatures will likely dominate into the first half of December.
My thoughts on the snow through Tuesday in the East and West.
Other than a blast into western Canada next week, most of the Arctic air will remain north of the Arctic Circle into December with just brief intrusions while mild, Pacific air takes hold from west to east.
Still happy with my old snow map.
Accumulating snow this weekend for parts of southern, central and eastern Ontario.
Wild storm in the West through Tuesday. A little snow in the east for the weekend?