This is my latest interpretation of the ECMWF long-range seasonal forecast output that gets updated once a month. This update goes through the upcoming winter.
Keep in mind, we have not released the AccuWeather.com winter or even fall forecast as of yet. We should have the full fall forecast for Canada released by the third week of August.
This particular model actually had one of the better, if not the best, seasonal long-range forecasts for last winter, which was a winter that delivered a number of surprises.
FALL 2012 MODEL FORECAST
WINTER 2012-13 MODEL FORECAST
A couple of notes about this ECMWF forecast........
1. The model has highest confidence in the above-normal winter temperatures across northern Canada/Alaska and the dryness over the Pacific Northwest. The Alaska forecast is the opposite of last year.
2. The model continues to show below-normal tropical storm/hurricane activity in the Atlantic/Gulf basin through the fall.
3. The model continues to predict weak to moderate El Nino conditions this fall and leveling off for the winter.
4. Keep in mind, precipitation forecasts have a higher error rate than temperature anomaly forecasts.
Major storm will bring heavy snow to New Brunswick. Big change coming for Alberta and Saskatchewan Friday and Saturday.
A storm will bring light to moderate snow to eastern Canada Thursday/Thursday night then will intensify and possibly bring heavier snow to New Brunswick Friday night.
A snow and wind recap of the blizzard which impacted the Canadian Maritimes.
Snow will overspread Ontario late Wednesday night or early Thursday then reach Quebec later Thursday and Thursday night.
Monday afternoon update on the impending snowstorm for Atlantic Canada and the next system for midweek in eastern Canada.
A look at the next two snowstorms and the long-range forecast model update...