Brett Anderson

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New Computer Model Monthly Outlooks Through Summer 2014

April 10, 2014; 12:37 AM ET

The seasonal updates of the European model (ECMWF) and the National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) have been released with monthly outlooks for temperature and precipitation.

A clear majority of long-range modeling is predicting a fairly dry and very warm summer for British Columbia.

There also continues to be a growing model consensus for the development of El Nino as early as summer, but more likely by early fall. The modeling is also now trending more and more toward a moderate to possibly strong El Nino.

With the above in mind, we can clearly see that the ECMWF is showing the impact of this with well below-normal precipitation from the western tropical Atlantic through the Caribbean and into the Gulf of Mexico later in the summer. This could suggest a less active tropical season for the Atlantic Basin.

The first set of maps below are my interpretation of the ECMWF monthly outlooks. The second set is my interpretation of the new NMME, which considers the strengths and weaknesses of several North American long-range models. The NMME is still experimental, but the results of this multi-model ensemble are very promising and will likely become operational in the not so far future.

Keep in mind, these are not forecasts.



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About This Blog

Brett Anderson
Brett Anderson covers both short-term and long-term weather and storm forecasts for Canada in this blog for