A line of drenching thunderstorms swept through southern Ontario earlier today. We detected over 1,100 lightning strikes with this thunderstorm complex in a three-hour period.
This region will continue to be under the threat for thunderstorms through Tuesday night as it remains in the battle zone between the heat/humidity to the west and the cooler air mass to the northeast.
It appears that the greatest threat for severe thunderstorms will be late Tuesday and into Tuesday evening from lower Michigan through southwestern Ontario and then down into Ohio and parts of Pennsylvania Tuesday night.
Three shots at rainfall this week for western B.C.
A moist, southwest flow of Pacific air combined with a series of disturbances rotating around a large upper low off the West Coast will give western B.C. three chances at rainfall through Thursday.
The first disturbance will bring some light rain to southwestern B.C. this evening. There is a second chance at some measurable rainfall for this region late Tuesday night and early Wednesday followed by the best chance decent rain coming Thursday and Thursday night.
The system Thursday. Thursday night looks much more stronger than the first two and could bring significant rainfall to Vancouver Island and even into parts of the lower mainland.
Southern Prairie heat peaks midweek
The heat will peak across the extreme southern Prairie region from southeastern Alberta to southern Manitoba Wednesday and Thursday as afternoon temperatures climb above the 33-degree-C (92 F) mark in many areas both days.
A front may stall across the region late in the week leading to an increase in thunderstorm activity.
Much-cooler air will likely surge into the eastern Prairies late this weekend then into eastern Canada early next week, but computer models are still at odds in regards to the timing. However, I do see the potential for strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms in Ontario sometime Sunday then perhaps southeastern Quebec and into New Brunswick next Monday.
I will post the latest long-range weekly update later tonight.
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Late-season snow for the western Prairies later this week and a look at the weekly long range pattern.
Major storm to inundate eastern Canada with rain and wind Thursday followed by a change to snow later Thursday night into Friday.
My latest thoughts on the weather pattern into next week