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    Brett Anderson

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    Long-Range Model Update for July, August and September

    June 10, 2013; 9:32 AM ET

    The updated seasonal ECMWF model forecast was updated yesterday (once a month) and below is my interpretation of what it shows for July, August and September in terms of temperature and precipitation anomalies. This is NOT an AccuWeather.com forecast.

    The model does not seem very committed to any dominant type of pattern through the summer, thus the error may end up being a little greater than normal for this type of forecast.

    Keep in mind, the model skill level is almost always higher for temperature compared to precipitation, especially during the warm season since precipitation is more convective in nature and can vary greatly over short distances.

    Also, the ECMWF also forecasts the ENSO to be near normal through the summer then trend towards a possible weak El Nino by the middle or end of fall. This might also explain the slight decrease in predicted tropical cyclone activity for this season by the ECMWF compared to previous runs.


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