The maps below are my latest interpretation of the weekly ECMWF long-range output through mid-May....
El Nino Watch continues
The latest International Multi-Model Ensemble (IMME) was just released and it projects a healthy El Nino for the September-November 2014 period, which would argue for less hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin, but more in the Pacific.
The IMME map below shows the projected sea-surface temperature anomalies for the August-November period. The large area of red over the equatorial Pacific indicates well above-normal SST's, which is indicative of a possible quick start to El Nino.
Damaging thunderstorms and possible tornadoes for the western Prairie region Thursday.
The western heat wave finally winding down, but some hot weather headed toward the eastern Prairies and northwestern Ontario by early next week.
Widespread record heat for BC
Pattern of extremes into next week and a look at August.
One of the worst wildfire seasons in recent time across the Northwest Territories is causing a massive plume of smoke....
Pattern does not favor any sustained heat waves the rest of this month from the eastern Prairies to Quebec.