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    Brett Anderson

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    Long-Range Forecast Model Update Not Big on Any Major Warmup

    July 30, 2013; 12:12 AM ET

    The most recent update of the long-range ECMWF model, which was released Monday night still shows more cooler and wetter anomalies, especially for central and eastern regions through most of August.

    The model just does not want to break down the northern latitude blocking, which in turn forces the jet stream farther south compared to normal, leading to a cooler/wetter pattern for many.

    The exception is northwestern Canada, where a strong ridge of high pressure is expected to persist and Newfoundland, which is more due to the well-above normal sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic which will likely remain through at least fall and probably the winter.

    I personally think that the blocking will break down by mid-August leading to a warmer pattern than what the ECMWF is showing for central and eastern Canada.

    ECMWF showing lower-than-normal tropical cyclone activity for August from the Gulf through the Caribbean basin.....

    One more thing, the model is fairly consistent in forecasting a drier pattern in the Gulf and Caribbean through a good chunk of August and this is likely due to the presence of increased wind shear due to the suppressed westerlies and higher than normal sea surface pressures. To no surprise, the model is predicting only 40 to 60 percent of normal tropical storm activity in this region for most of August.

    By the way, water temperatures in the basin are fairly close to normal, but we have been seeing above-normal wind shear and dry air/dust over the past couple of weeks, which are certainly inhibiting any serious development. Keep in mind though, it is still July and the tropics usually wait until the second week of August before things really start to get active. Hopefully, the ECMWF is right and it stays quiet through August.

    The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com

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