This is my latest interpretation (not my forecast) of the ECMWF long-range output that now goes out into the first week of February.
The model has clearly made some changes to its forecast since last week, but I am still far from sold with what it is showing for the pattern through the end of the month right now. There are a lot of changes going on in the stratosphere right now and it may take another week before several of these models have a good handle on what is actually going to happen over the next few weeks.
I mentioned in my twitter that I do believe that an overall change to colder weather will take place the second half of the month across a large part of southern Canada, though I have my doubts that the penetration of the colder weather will be sustained south of 40 degrees latitude based on where the greatest stratospheric warming is projected to take place over the next 8-10 days.
Be sure to follow me on my twitter account for quick updates on the weather pattern BrettAWX
Do recent cold weather events signal an early winter for Canada?
Here are my latest thoughts on upcoming weather pattern highlights across canada for the next few weeks.
Frost and freeze across parts of eastern Canada and the interior Northeast U.S. later this week, while the West gets into another warm/dry spell this weekend and into early next week.
An update on clues to the pattern through the second week of October.
Latest snowfall totals from Alberta and a look at the potential for damaging thunderstorms over southern Ontario later Wednesday.
Update for the upcoming snow and cold headed for the Prairies.