Computer modeling has now come into pretty good agreement with the eventual track of Sandy, turning it toward the WNW and having the center of circulation make landfall along the New Jersey coast around Monday evening, give or take a few hours.
You can also follow my brief comments about the storm on my twitter @BrettAWX
ECMWF model shows the projected position of Sandy Monday night.
What makes this such a dangerous storm is that the storm will approach from the SE or ESE, which will result in a higher storm surge to the north and east of the center track. Also, the trough coming in from the west, which will be the system that pulls Sandy into the coast will actually energize Sandy before landfall, resulting in a very low central pressure and a very tight pressure gradient, which will spread tropical storm winds and hurricane force gusts well out away from the center and far inland.
I expect massive power outages in the Northeast U.S, especially NJ, Long Island and eastern PA.
Flooding will be worst from Delaware through Maryland and southern PA as the storm stalls out across the region through Tuesday.
Heavy, wet snow will be confined to the higher mountains of North Carolina, West Virginia and perhaps SW Pennsylvania Monday and Tuesday.
Sandy is a highly unusual situation for the East Coast of the U.S. and one that I and other meteorologists have never experienced.
Clearly, the worst impacts for Canada will be in Ontario, as Atlantic Canada gets lucky with the storm tracking too far to the south.
But keep in mind, the worst of the storm over Ontario will pale in comparison to what it will be like from Maryland to the south coast of New England.
--Areas from Peterborough and Barrie on southwest through the GTA and down toward Lake Erie will see their strongest winds later Monday night through midday Tuesday with sustained winds on the order of 35 to 55 kmh with gusts anywhere from 70 to 85 kmh. There will be even stronger winds out on Lakes Erie and Ontario.
--During the time of strongest winds the direction will be mostly from the north, which is a better direction from the GTA on northeast along the Ontario lake shore as the friction of the land slows the wind a bit and pushes lake water away.
--I expect some minor wind damage on the order of tree branches and loose material. There will probably be some power outages, especially in the Toronto, Hamilton and St. Catharines area.
--However. this direction is not good news for the southern shore in the region around St. Catharines as there could be some flooding from the lake.
--In terms of rainfall, I think a general 50-80 mm on average in a line from Peterborough to Colingwood to Kitchener and Nanticoke and points east. Obviously, a few spots will get more than that. Amounts will be somewhat less as you go west and north of that line.
--Snow will not be an issue for this region as the air will not be cold enough to support it. It would be a different story if it was a month later.
--Rainfall will be even less across the St. Lawrence Valley due to downsloping, but there will be gusty winds perhaps getting up to 60 kmh on Monday. Some of the higher elevations of Quebec certainly could gust to 90 kmh. Again, no snow for Quebec.
--Even though the worst of Sandy will stay far away from the Maritimes, the shear size of Sandy will result in large waves/swells crashing into Nova Scotia. I expect 5 to 6 meter swells coming in from the south Monday night.
If you are concerned about power outages, one of my readers (Brent), who is excellent in this type of preparation offered these tips if you wish to take them.
1) Water, use your water tank for potable water, fill any container you have now
2) Charge any batteries you have now
3) Make as much ice as you can, fill margarine tubs with water and freeze, get your coolers out to transfer food to them. Ice is your friend
4) I have an extreme coleman cooler, keeps ice for five days
5) Gas up vehicle, even a car running with a few accessories will charge ipod , phone etc
6) Radio with batteries
7) Propane tanks filled, so you can cook on BBQ
Here is my latest long range forecast interpretation that now goes out into the first week of the new year....
Brief update on the potential winter storm for eastern Canada during the Sunday night/Monday period. Long range update later...
Plenty of cold to talk about and a wintry mess late in the weekend and early next week in the East.
Here are the latest unofficial storm snowfall reports out of British Columbia and Alberta
The combination of snow, strong winds and very low temperatures is making for some tough travel across southwestern Canada.
Initial snow forecast map for the West...