Monday evening update
--latest U.S. short range computer models not too different from their earlier runs and much more progressive (weaker/faster moving out into the Atlantic) compared to the ECMWF model run from earlier Monday.
--Looks like there will be an initial band of snow setting up along the Arctic boundary Wednesday night into Thursday over southern Ontario, especially Toronto and Kitchener on south. Not a heavy snow, but with the cold temps many areas may be able to get 4-8 cm of snow.
--As storm intensifies off the coast Thursday night and Friday it will spread snow up into Nova Scotia. Latest trends argue against much in the way of snow for central and northern New Brunswick, while the heaviest snow may target Nova Scotia instead with the potential for over 10 cm.
--Greatest potential for blizzard conditions later Thursday into early Friday remains in the southern New England area, including Boston, Hartford and Providence.
--This will be all snow for most coastal areas in the Northeast U.S. and up into the Maritimes.
--Major cold shot coming back early next week from the Prairies into Ontario with possible storm and significant lake-effect snow behind the storm. This could be the type of setup that hammers the immediate Buffalo area with heavy lake-effect snowfall.
Monday afternoon post
Very challenging weather pattern shaping up across the eastern half of Canada over the next week with extreme cold and potential storms.
Snowfall totals from the Sunday/early Monday storm from New Brunswick and PEI via Env. Canada.
A weak clipper system will bring light snow to Ontario and southwestern Quebec later tonight into Tuesday. Most areas will see about 2-5 cm, but areas downwind of the lakes will have some heavier squalls and the potential for over 10 cm.
Computer models have (correctly, in my opinion) trended farther south with the Wed nt. to Friday storm tracking into the East and Atlantic regions. The amount and intensity of cold air just to the north argues for this southern shift, which means lighter snows for Ontario Wednesday night and Thursday, while the focus shifts toward New England. I will have more on this later.
The map below shows how cold it will feel early Tuesday morning.....
It still looks like many areas in southern Quebec, northern New Brunswick and parts of Ontario will bottom out in the minus 30s C. Wednesday night and we took the lows down even further on our site.
The latest ECMWF model has also gone to the extreme solution early next week as bitterly cold air meets up with a storm and possibly brings blizzard conditions to portions of the Great Lakes region and Ontario.
I will try to update later this evening.
Updated look at the long-range and potential El Nino later this year.
Back from Toronto and the snow....
Weekly long range update into the second week of May....
The seasonal updates of the ECMWF and the National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) have been released with monthly outlooks for temperature and precipitation.
Update on the long range through early May.
A look at how extensive the cold was in March and an update into the first week of May.