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The combination of bitterly cold air and strong winds will produce dangerously low real feel temperatures tonight and Tuesday across eastern Canada.
In addition to the cold and wind, intense lake-effect snow bands will form over the eastern Great Lakes and persist into Tuesday night/Wednesday morning with a mostly west to east orientation.
By far, the heaviest snow will fall over the Tug Hill region of Upstate New York due to a combination of a long fetch off Lake Huron and the rise in elevation.
There will also be significant accumulations off of Lake Huron, Erie and Georgian Bay. Based on what I am seeing I believe the most intense snow for Ontario will be from tonight through Tuesday due east of Georgian Bay. Looks like the stretch of highway 400 between Port Severn and up to just south of MacTier will get hit the hardest with snowfall rates of 8 cm per hour and whiteout conditions. This intense band will also likely extend into the Bracebridge and Gravenhurst areas as well.
Significant snow will also fall between Kincardine and Meaford.
By the way, even though it has been cold there is still plenty of open water over the lakes to produce the heavy lake-effect. Lake ice coverage is indeed running above normal, but it is still early in the season.
Images courtesy of the Canadian Ice Service.....
Latest ice concentration in tenths.
Snow, ice and rain accumulations from this most recent storm. Courtesy of EC.
Ontario (very incomplete at this time)
Also, 17 cm in Pembroke.
The polar vortex which is currently extending into Ontario will make a steady retreat back to the Arctic Circle by late week and we should see a nice recovery in temperatures Thursday and especially Friday.
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Potential for a significant storm later Sunday into Monday from Ontario to Quebec with heavy rain, severe thunderstorms, wind and snow.
Late-season snow for the western Prairies later this week and a look at the weekly long range pattern.
Major storm to inundate eastern Canada with rain and wind Thursday followed by a change to snow later Thursday night into Friday.
My latest thoughts on the weather pattern into next week