Computer models are doing their typical moves when it comes to a potential nor'easter for the middle of next week along the East coast.
The new ECMWF model run is slower, slightly stronger and farther west with the track compared to the old run as the two upper-level systems phase together more quickly.
The ECMWF, which has had the hot hand lately, has an intensifying storm forming near Cape Hatteras early Wednesday then tracking slowly up the coast to just off Delaware Thursday morning then near Boston Friday morning.
This track would bring gale-force, northeast winds to the Northeast U.S. Wednesday and Wednesday night and easterly winds to the coastal Maritimes Thursday along with a period of heavier rain.
Farther inland, from the Appalachians through upstate New York, eastern Ontario, southern Quebec and northern New England heavier, wet snow is possible Wednesday night into Thursday. The precipitation in these areas may start out as some rain.
Below is a potential scenario map that we drew up earlier in the day before the latest ECMWF was released. I still think this map is fine for now (slightly farther east track and faster than the ECMWF) as we should be averaging out the model solutions at this early point.
Weather pattern clues through the end of October.
Major rainfall event for the Maritimes late tonight, Wednesday and Wednesday night. Heaviest rain headed for central New Brunswick.
Flood potential for portions of the Maritimes midweek.
My latest interpretation of the weekly long range forecast output.
Weekly weather pattern clues into mid-October.
A look at some of the pattern highlights this week into next week across Canada.