AccuWeather.com

Canadian Weather Blog

Cold and Some Snow Headed for the East

Feb 7, 2012; 1:53 PM ET

The weather map across Canada today is about as uneventful as you can get for the early part of February, but things will change late this week, especially in the East.

A very weak storm system will bring some snow to the Ohio Valley and the Middle Atlantic states through Wednesday, while completely missing southern Ontario. Once this system gets out over the Atlantic Wednesday night and merges with a system coming up from the Bahamas, there will be rapid intensification.

This new storm will continue to strengthen Thursday and Thursday night as it takes the northeast turn, with the storm center likely passing within 100 km of Cape Race, Newfoundland, very late Thursday night.

The big question for St. John's, Newfoundland, and the whole Avalon Peninsula will be precipitation type. The ECMWF and NAM models track the storm over or just off the Avalon, which would cause the snow to change to rain. The GFS model tracks the storm farther east, keeping the precipitation mostly snow, though not a lot, for St. John's with a change to rain down toward Cape Race. The Canadian Model seems to be in the middle of all these headache causing models.

Since I believe that the GFS is a little slow in intensifying the storm over the Gulf Stream, I look for the stronger, slightly farther west track.

Here is what I expect for snowfall Thursday night/Friday morning...

St. John's, NL... 8-12 cm with snow changing to rain for a time early Friday.

Cape Race, NL... 3-6 cm

Arnold's Cove, NL... 10-20 cm

Bonavista, NL... 12-22 cm

Port Blanford, NL... 15-25 cm

Gander, NL... 12-22 cm

----------------------------

An arctic front will push southward through the Great Lakes region on Friday. Along and behind the front, the combination of cold air and instability will lead to widespread snow showers across Ontario and western Quebec with slippery roads due to a quick freeze-up.

The image below shows a potential scenario if the energy off the East Coast can merge with the Arctic front.

As the energy (trough) associated with this Arctic front approaches the Northeast U.S. coast on Saturday, I expect to see a storm to intensify somewhere just east or southeast of Cape Cod, Mass. Even though the American models are not too excited about this, I have seen this type of situation lead to a rapidly intensifying storm over the Gulf Stream which can lead to a sudden snowstorm over eastern New England and extending into the western Maritimes. I am confident there will be an intensifying storm; it's just the location of where it develops that's still way up in the air. Something to monitor over the next couple of days.

-------

This shot of Arctic air coming into eastern Canada later this week will be moving out by Tuesday as a west to east, zonal jet stream pattern takes hold. Looks like much of Canada will be above normal in terms of temperature for next week, but that does not mean it cannot snow.

Still no signs of arctic cold from southern Alberta through BC over the next 10 days. Certainly not the winter that I had envisioned for western Canada. Mother Nature has the last laugh.

--------

Be sure to follow me on my twitter account for quick updates on the weather pattern BrettAWX

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com

blogs Home >

Comments

Comments left here should adhere to the AccuWeather.com Community Guidelines. Profanity, personal attacks, and spam will not be tolerated.

More Brett Anderson

More Big Storms in the East Tuesday

May 28, 2012; 2:47 PM ET

Snow, sleet, cold, heat, tornadoes, high humidity.... you name it, Canada has been getting it!

Weekly Long-Range Forecast Model Interpretation

May 25, 2012; 9:50 AM ET

Here is my weekly long range forecast model interpretation...

A Look back at the Winter that wasn't

May 22, 2012; 1:27 PM ET

How warm was last winter?

Long-Range Clues through Mid-June

May 18, 2012; 12:05 PM ET

This is my latest interpretation of the ECMWF long range forecast through mid-June.

Weekly Long Range Model Forecast Update

May 16, 2012; 8:44 PM ET

Here is my latest interpretation of the ECMWF weekly long range forecast system..........

The Summer Forecast for Canada

May 14, 2012; 1:43 AM ET

Here is my summer forecast for Canada.

Updated Long-Range Model Forecast

May 8, 2012; 10:42 PM ET

Here is my latest interpretation of the weekly ECMWF long range model forecast that now goes out into early June......

Weekly Update on the Long-Range Model Forecast

May 1, 2012; 9:14 PM ET

Here is my interpretation of the most recent update of the ECMWF forecast model system.......

Beneficial Rainfall for the Western Prairies

Apr 26, 2012; 2:45 PM ET

The combination of a slow-moving front and a moist, easterly upslope wind flow will leave parts of the western Prairies with significant rainfall.....

Long-Range Forecast Model Update

Apr 25, 2012; 11:54 AM ET

Here is my latest interpretation of the latest weekly ECMWF long-range forecast system.....

Storm Snowfall Forecast Map Update

Apr 23, 2012; 2:56 PM ET

Just when you think summer has to be right around the corner... bam!

Updated Long Range Model Forecast

Apr 19, 2012; 10:48 PM ET

The new weekly long range model data is in through a good chunk of May....

El Nino Southern Oscillation Update

Apr 18, 2012; 2:32 PM ET

La Nina was barely hanging on as of early April and the transition to neutral ENSO conditions in the equatorial Pacific region should be complete by the end of this month.

Updated Computer Model Forecast for the Summer

Apr 10, 2012; 9:31 PM ET

The updated ECMWF long range seasonal forecast was released yesterday

Updated Snow Map and Weekly Long-Range Outlook

Apr 6, 2012; 10:41 AM ET

An update on the Saskatchewan snowstorm and my latest interpretation of the long range model forecast.