Here is what the latest update of the weekly ECMWF long-range forecast model shows.....
As I said earlier, as we start to recover with temperatures across eastern Canada next week there will likely be an increase in precipitation as milder air from the south is forced to overrun the leftover cold closer to the surface. For most places in Ontario and Quebec it should be in the frozen state (snow).
There are indications of a second surge of cold coming back into the east early in the week of the 4th.....
I guess I was a little tired last night when I drew this up...it's supposed to be Feb, not Jan.
The clipper storm that will bring some accumulating snow to the Prairies tonight and Thursday will dive toward the Great Lakes later Thursday then race off the Middle Atlantic Coast Friday night.
Not a lot of moisture to work with in this storm, especially with all that day, Arctic air in front of it and limited inflow from the Gulf of Mexico.
This will be a fast mover, but snow ratio's will be higher than usual, meaning it will take less moisture than it normally does to produce a certain amount of snow.
In general, looks like a general 2-8 cm south of London, Ont, while areas to the north and northeast get anywhere from a coating to 3 cm, which includes the GTA.
Updated look at the long-range and potential El Nino later this year.
Back from Toronto and the snow....
Weekly long range update into the second week of May....
The seasonal updates of the ECMWF and the National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) have been released with monthly outlooks for temperature and precipitation.
Update on the long range through early May.
A look at how extensive the cold was in March and an update into the first week of May.