A slop storm will push into eastern Canada later tonight and through Tuesday. It's not a big storm, but with cold, dry air in front of it, there will be an assortment of precipitation types from southern Ontario through the St. Lawrence Valley.
You can also follow my commentary on the storm on my twitter... @BrettAWX
Currently, the air across southern Ontario is cold and very dry (low dewpoints) which does give me concern that the initial burst of precipitation across southwestern Ontario late this evening could be something other than the rain that the models are showing, though the southerly winds should eventually bring in enough low-level warming for a mostly rain event from Hamilton to London and Windsor.
For the GTA, I think this starts out as a light snow/sleet mix then goes over to freezing rain away from the lake, while Toronto itself will turn to rain. Precipitation should change back to snow Tuesday morning for areas just north/west of Toronto as the upper-level temps cool, while in Toronto itself it may take until late morning or early afternoon.
Precipitation should eventually change to rain across the St. Lawrence Valley thanks to the southeast downslope winds, but not before a prolonged period of mixed precipitation.
I do think areas from basically Barrie on north should stay mostly snow with a chance of a little mixing.
The storm system should strengthen as it approaches the Maritimes, and I can easily see a general 8-15 cm of snow across the northern half of New Brunswick Wednesday morning, while mixed precipitation and rain will impact areas down toward Saint John.
Weekend Storm totals for Atlantic Canada from very intense storm
Moncton, NB 27 cm
Saint John, NB 24 cm
Bathhurst, NB 21 cm
Miramichi, NB 20 cm
Gander, NL 18 cm
Deer Lake, NL 18 cm
Sydney, NS 15 cm
Yarmouth, NS 14 cm
Greenwood, NS 6 cm
Halifax, NS 4 cm
Still waiting for PEI totals
Highest wind gusts
Wreckhouse, NL 170 km/h
Grand Etang, NS 161 km/h
Burgeo, NL 124 km/h
Brier island, NS 115 km/h
Do recent cold weather events signal an early winter for Canada?
Here are my latest thoughts on upcoming weather pattern highlights across canada for the next few weeks.
Frost and freeze across parts of eastern Canada and the interior Northeast U.S. later this week, while the West gets into another warm/dry spell this weekend and into early next week.
An update on clues to the pattern through the second week of October.
Latest snowfall totals from Alberta and a look at the potential for damaging thunderstorms over southern Ontario later Wednesday.
Update for the upcoming snow and cold headed for the Prairies.