Updated graphics below as of 3:40 pm ADT Friday
Arthur made landfall last night near Cape Lookout, NC and is now accelerating toward the northeast.
You can also follow me on twitter @BrettAWX for quicker updates
Arthur is now a category 1 hurricane. Despite moving over cooler water over the next 24 hours and encountering more wind shear the hurricane should maintain plenty of strength as it will interact with an approaching trough from the west Saturday morning and phase, which will add energy to the system but also cause it to lose it's tropical characteristics on Saturday.
Here are the updated wind and rain graphics....
As Arthur transitions to a more non-tropical type storm the wind field will expand away from the center and the heavy rain will blossom along its northern and western side.
Computer models have been consistent with a more westward shift in the track, taking the center up over southwestern Nova Scotia and across PEI on Saturday. I believe Arthur will be considered a hybrid-type, minimal hurricane/or strong tropical storm as it makes it's second landfall Saturday morning. By the time the center reaches PEI it will be losing strength and will be turning into an extra-tropical storm. Once past PEI, Arthur will weaken more quickly over the cold waters and impacts over Newfoundland should be minor.
Clearly, the heaviest rain and greatest flood threat will be over New Brunswick, with the greatest intensity of rain occurring during the morning and into the afternoon hours on Saturday.
Power outages due to fallen trees and branches will be the main issue for the western two-thirds of Nova Scotia and PEI. Winds will not be as strong across eastern Nova Scotia and there will also be much less rain.
I expect about a metre of storm surge into the south coast of Nova Scotia Saturday morning.
This storm will not be another Juan as it will be weaker and taking a less dangerous path.
Weather conditions will greatly improve from southwest to northeast across the Maritimes Saturday night as we say good riddance to Arthur.
Latest model update points toward a soggy southern U.S. and a return to the western Canada warmth.
How did snow cover extent fare this past winter across Canada and a look back at the Great Ice season.
An update on the long range and a look at the overall pattern the rest of this week in Canada.
This is my latest interpretation of the ECMWF forecast model that now goes out through the middle of May.
What the summer weather pattern might look like under a moderate to strong El Nino.
Weekly long-range forecast model update and a look back at March.