It's been a long 36 hours in the office and at home with this storm. It was a nasty storm down here in the mountains of central Pennsylvania with about 5 cm of snow Tuesday morning followed by an extended period of heavy, freezing rain into last night. The good news was that the roads were mainly wet, but the trees and power lines were covered with ice.
Last night, I went outside to take some pictures of the ice on my cherry tree, and I heard three loud pops from the hill in the distance. At first, I thought it was a shotgun, then I realized no one would be out hunting in the night under a steady freezing rain. At least I hope not. Then I realized it was likely a larger tree that was snapping as it was falling under the weight of the ice.
Just as I went in to download the photos to post on my last tweet for the night, the power went out and remained out for the night and is still out as of this writing. Luckily, this is the year my in-laws chose to stay down in North Carolina. I know they would have been miserable in the cold, dark house on the day before our Thanksgiving.
As of 2 p.m. EST over 5,000 households in our county remain without power. They expect most areas to be back up by midnight tonight. Let's hope!
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Lake-effect snow event into Thursday morning.....
Lake-effect snow will pick up in intensity for some locations this evening and continue through the night before winding down Thursday morning.
This event will not be as heavy as the last one due to a shorter duration and less instability, but I do think there will still be a narrow area that ends up with over 20 cm.
The strongest band will set up northwest of London, Ontario, early this evening. The winds will be a little more northerly compared to the last event, and thus it appears that the heaviest snow band will be just to the west of London.
I think the main snow band will set up between Forest and Parkhill, Ontario, then extend southeast to between Dutton and Port Stanley. In this narrow corridor, I can easily see in excess of 20 cm by early Thursday morning.
The band should shift back to the east and northeast before dawn Thursday and into the morning, bringing a few hours of steadier snow into London before it weakens.
A second, much shorter band will concentrate moderate to locally heavy snowfall between Meaford and Collingwood and then down toward Shelburne. I expect a general 8-15 cm under this band with some locally higher amounts.
Some snow from the tail end of the Georgian Bay band may get close to the northern suburbs of Toronto for a time tonight and early Thursday.
Cold and snow coming for the West
The coldest air of the season for southwestern BC and the Pacific Northwest of the U.S. will arrive early next week as a pattern change takes place.
A building high pressure ridge into Alaska will force the Arctic air farther west this time compared to the last two outbreaks.
The graphic below shows the expected arrival of Arctic air into the West early next week. Keep in mind, southern BC will turn colder late in the weekend as a large trough moves in, but the Arctic air will follow the trough.
In addition to the cold, a storm will run east-southeast along the arctic front late in the weekend and will produce moderate to heavy snowfall In the Coastal Range and then into the Rockies and western Prairies.
The latest information suggests that the track of this storm would potentially favor heavier snow running from the Edmonton, Alberta area to as far east as Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, from Sunday evening to Monday evening. A southward shift of this track would bring the heavy snow to Calgary. I will keep you posted on this through the week.
Eastern storm snowfall reports from Environment Canada
No official reports in terms of rain/wind for the Maritimes as of yet, though I did see some strong winds getting into Nova Scotia with gusts of 102 km/h at Brier island and 91 km/h in Greenwood as of Wednesday afternoon.
Extended Fall weather pattern into November.
West and East coast Canadian waters remain warmer than normal.....
No significant changes in thinking in regards to Gonzalo and a look at the latest long range models.
Update on Gonzalo as it heads to Bermuda then approaches southeast Newfoundland.
Heavy rainfall for Quebec Thursday and tracking Gonzalo.
Gonzalo a potential threat to Newfoundland this weekend and an updated look at the long range.