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Arctic Air Headed for Eastern Siberia

Jan 25, 2012; 1:33 PM ET

Snowfall forecast map for Quebec and the Maritimes late Thursday night into Friday.

While there will be snow across coastal New Brunswick into Nova Scotia/PEI starting early Friday, the snow will likely change to rain Friday afternoon before ending. Heaviest snowfall should be across central New Brunswick.

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As most of you know, I look at the long0range forecast models quite a bit. They are certainly far from perfect, but they are "tools" which help us come up with a forecast.

The overall consensus among long-range computer models over the past few days suggests that the real cold, Arctic air is going to continue to retreat this week and will set up shop over eastern Siberia through at least the first half of February. This is obviously good news in terms of heating costs across the U.S. and southern Canada.

There will still be some room for quick shots of very cold air in eastern Canada, especially from Quebec to Labrador, but overall, the pattern over the next two weeks looks fairly mild across a large part of Canada compared to what it normally is this time of year.

Check out the latest GFS model ensemble temperature anomaly forecast for North America a week and two weeks from today. A lot of red!!!!! Courtesy of PSU Ewall.

However, that does not mean that there will not be any snowstorms, especially over the eastern half of Canada. It is rare to get big snowstorms when it is unusually cold.

As I look at the possible weather pattern across North America over the next 8-15 days, I see the following......

--North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) trending positive.

--Arctic Oscillation (AO), which is currently negative, trending toward neutral.

--Gradual stratospheric cooling near the north pole.

--Weak La Nina.

1. Mild pattern continues for most of western Canada late next week, dry for the Prairies.

2. Cold, but not anything unusual late next week for eastern Canada and the eastern U.S., but some storms possible.

During the day 10-15 period.......

1. Drier pattern for BC. Mild for most of western Canada. Great weather for skiing!

2. Possible shot of very cold air into Quebec.

3. Stormier eastern U.S. through the Maritimes/Newfoundland. Too early for rain vs. snow specifics.

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I will be out on the ski trails with my daughter Thursday and Friday. Have a happy, safe weekend!

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com

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About This Blog

Brett Anderson
Brett Anderson covers both short-term and long-term weather and storm forecasts for Canada in this blog for AccuWeather.com.

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