Tuesday 9:45 a.m.
A southwesterly flow of warm, moist air ahead of a cold front is contributing to a band of rain and thunderstorms that stretches from the Ohio Valley into parts of the Middle and North Atlantic states. We expect some showers and thunderstorms to cross the I95 corridor from D.C. to Boston later today and this evening.
The cold front should slip south then stall from Virginia or Maryland to Kentucky tomorrow. With the front likely to make only limited progress, some additional showers may occur tomorrow from D.C. to New York City and on west. Most of New England should turn sunny.
In general, computer models suggest a low pressure area forms along the front in the Middle Atlantic states on Friday then slowly moves up along the coast this weekend. If that happens, it will be a damp weekend in the I95 corridor of the Northeast.
In contrast, most of the Great Lakes region looks like it will bask in sunshine with afternoon temperatures in Detroit and Chicago close to 70 and nights cooling to the 40s and 50s. The video has more.
In the longer range, the re-curving of the latest western Pacific typhoon may signal an upper air trough (and cool weather) in the Northeast in a week to 10 days.
Late September is not generally known for widespread thunderstorms, but this map shows near 50,000 lightning strokes in the period from 8 EDT last night until just after 8:30 EDT this morning.
A storm that has brought hardship and danger to parts of Texas and Arkansas with an assortment of ice and snow will send a swath of snow northeastward today and tonight. Here is a map showing our overall estimates as of 10 a.m. ET:
That could lead to tough travel at the end of the weekend. This map for Sunday at 7 p.m. ET shows where those troubles could be (north of the line with the label "snow rain line.")
This table shows the ensemble means for the next two weeks at Philadelphia: It suggests that whereas it does turn cold, any snowfall looks quite limited.
It is too early to be confident about any forecast for Christmas Day (or even the week before). However, the GFS model does go out 16 days, and it has a cold look for the Northeast exactly one week before Christmas.
As the flow aloft becomes southwesterly, mild moist air will spread northeastward from the Gulf States. In summer, this creates a hazy, very warm and humid scene for the Northeast. Now though, the warmth is slowly drained away as the moist mild air advances over cold ground. With temperatures near the saturation point, clouds form.
If each one of us lights an inner flame for just one thing- just one aspect of our lives we are thankful for, the warmth we create can light the world on Thanksgiving. The flame of warmth and love can burn so bright that no cold wind on earth can blow it out.