Wednesday, 9 a.m.
A southerly flow of increasingly moist air is spreading up the I95 corridor, where the dawn was greeted by dreary dullness and dim, drab drippiness from Maryland to Massachusetts. There are also some showers from western New York to Ohio along a cold front that will reach the East Coast this evening. When that cold front arrives, it will usher in a dry air mass that pulls back the curtain of clouds to reveal brilliant sunshine that plays off the multicolored leaves in the Northeast from tomorrow into the weekend.
In New York City and Philadelphia, typical afternoon temperatures are well up in the 60s at this time of year. Nights cool to about 50 in the cities, but well down in the 40s in many suburbs. The air masses in place from tomorrow through Saturday will bring temperatures that run about a half-dozen degrees below those long-term averages. Saturday morning is apt to be frosty in the colder suburbs from Washington, D.C., to New York City and below freezing in upstate New York and much of New England's interior. However, a strong southwesterly flow of warmer air could boost temperatures to 70 degrees in these areas on Sunday afternoon.
A strong storm is likely to cut through the Great Lakes Saturday night and Sunday, and its associated cold front will trigger showers and even thunderstorms. However, the air coming in behind that storm should not be as chilly as the air that follows this week's fronts. The reason: this week's upper air flow into the Northeast can be traced back to northwest Canada. Next week's main upper air current looks like it will be straight west to east. The video has more.
This map shows where the storms were at 10:18 AM ET. That cluster of storms may hold together, but in response to daytime heating, new ones can pop up at other places this afternoon.
On this map, two such features (short waves) stand out today. The one in Ohio caused some thunderstorms in Michigan and Indiana yesterday. The other short wave is causing thunderstorms this morning from western Wisconsin to northern Missouri.
Scotty the Dog will be four-months-old in four days. On walks during hot weather, he is quick to seek out shady spots. He has yet to experience any cold weather, but he looks like he will be ready when it arrives (not any time soon!).
Erika's heavy rainfall separated into two areas yesterday. This is the Morehead City, North Carolina, radar, showing an area of heavy rain and thunderstorms that dumped more 4 inches of rain on parts of the coastal Carolinas this morning.
Tropical Storm Erika could eventually affect Florida and other sections of the Gulf Coast or Southeast, but for now it poses no threat for the Northeast. This map shows the storm as of early this morning.
The second concern is Erika. The map below shows what many different models area saying. While there is a good agreement in the short range, the longer-range spread is quite larger, with tracks ...