Elliot Abrams

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Warmer and Remaining Dry for the Great Lakes and Northeast

August 16, 2013; 5:36 AM

Friday 7 a.m.

Today's video shows what you can expect for the Great Lakes and Northeast from now through early next week.

There is extensive rainfall across the Southeast, as shown on this Friday morning radar image. However, while the rain is moving northeastward, the flow weakens north of Virginia. A separate upper-air current from the northern Plains will stretch eastward to keep most of the Great Lakes and Northeast dry well into next week.

With a high pressure area parking over the Great Lakes and Northeast, our weather is likely to be much the same the next few days and shouldn't change much well into next week. While the sameness will not quite be classified as identicalness or exactness because we will have some changes in the amount of sunshine, one day's appearance will be virtually indistinguishable from the next because of a general similarity from day to day that stays the same and doesn't change much. In addition to the semblance of closeness we'll experience in terms of daily weather changes, we expect it to be mild to warm by day and cool at night... typical for the same time in other years. While in one sense this whole pattern of similarity may be viewed as monotonous or tedious, described as being humdrum or ho-hum, calling it tedious or monotonous is really the same as saying it is something offering little prospect for change or variety. However, in truth many people don't feel that is a negative, and for them the idea that the weather pattern coming up will change very little and offer little in the way of variety, change, alteration or difference is just fine, if it's all the same to them. In a sense, then the dry weather pattern will simply continue, one day in close correspondence with the next, each day similar to the one that preceded it, and in many respects, a lot like the way it'll turn out the next day and the day after...a likeness that seems repetitive, repetition that means virtual interchangeability of days, or at least a reasonable approximation, a likeness, if you will, with one day following another in endless succession, day in and day out, day after day and night after night, night after night and day after day, night after day and day after day, each day offering a similarity and congruence with events before and after as far out as we can see.

What could change more than suggested in the story above?

1. The warmth and humidity may become more pronounced and perhaps oppressive from Chicago to Boston next week.

2. Once the humidity has increased, passing disturbances at the southern edge of the westerlies (which will be prominent across southern Canada) could induce thunderstorms from the Great Lakes to New England.

3. Extensive moisture over the Southeast will produce plenty of showers in the Carolinas then into Virginia this weekend. However, there remains a lot of uncertainty about how much (if any) of it reaches Pennsylvania and New Jersey or any places farther north. We'll be sorting this out as things unfold in the next few days.

4. A tropical system with no name at the moment COULD blossom into more of a storm as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. In addition to allowing limited warning time along the Gulf Coast, it could add to the rainfall/flood threat in the Southeast.

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com


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About This Blog

Elliot Abrams
Elliot Abrams from AccuWeather.com offers this Northeast Weather Blog for the U.S. with regular updates on NE weather from a leading forecaster and meteorologist.