Thursday, 9:30 a.m.
In the video, we look at prospects for the coming weekend and early next week in the Northeast and Great Lakes. Also, we visit the latest version of the forecast for 2 p.m. on Oct. 10. You may recall that we looked at this date on the GFS model early this week and saw what appeared to be a heavy wet snowfall underway in central and northern Pennsylvania. If you don't recall seeing that map, let me say this: we looked at this date (Oct. 10) on the GFS model early this week and saw what appeared to be a heavy wet snowfall underway in central and northern Pennsylvania.
One feature that will affect the weekend weather will be a strengthening trough aloft that heads for the eastern Great Lakes. It will trigger showers, perhaps some thunderstorms and even waterspouts over the Great Lakes as it moves through. This prog map shows where it could be early Sunday morning:
This map courtesy of @WeatherNut27 shows the distribution of the heaviest snow from yesterday's storm. No big storms are likely in any of these areas during the rest of the holiday weekend.
Along I95, rain ruled through midmorning while marshmallows of wet snow changed the gray November landscape to winter white very fast inland. I told Sam The Dog about the snow before it started in the middle of Pennsylvania. He was taking a wait-and-see attitude.
The profile here is for New York City at 1 p.m. tomorrow. We see it is forecast to be just above freezing near the ground. Will big wet flakes make to the ground or will they melt into rain drops? Or will there be a mix? It's a very close call call.
This pressure map shows the strong circulation around the storm that brought all the warm air northward... and which will force colder air eastward next.
Looking at next week, the GFS ensemble spaghetti plot of upper air winds shows how much agreement there is among members of the ensemble (same model running multiple times using slightly different starting assumptions). The maps are from next Tuesday, Nov. 25, and Thanksgiving Day, Nov. 27. There is good agreement on the first map, but a lot of spread two days later.
The location of lake-effect snow bands is tightly controlled by geography, topography and wind. From this pressure analysis, we see why the wind favored heavy snow staying south of the hardest hit Buffalo snow belts earlier today.