Thursday, 9:30 a.m.
In the video, we look at prospects for the coming weekend and early next week in the Northeast and Great Lakes. Also, we visit the latest version of the forecast for 2 p.m. on Oct. 10. You may recall that we looked at this date on the GFS model early this week and saw what appeared to be a heavy wet snowfall underway in central and northern Pennsylvania. If you don't recall seeing that map, let me say this: we looked at this date (Oct. 10) on the GFS model early this week and saw what appeared to be a heavy wet snowfall underway in central and northern Pennsylvania.
One feature that will affect the weekend weather will be a strengthening trough aloft that heads for the eastern Great Lakes. It will trigger showers, perhaps some thunderstorms and even waterspouts over the Great Lakes as it moves through. This prog map shows where it could be early Sunday morning:
The wind will not roar like a lion in the Northeast on Sunday March 1. It certainly won't be lamblike. However, with more cold and snow in the forecast, it might be suitable for this group:
The surface analysis shows to low pressure area off the North Carolina coast, a large cold high pressure area in the northwest corner of the map, and a broad northeasterly flow of cold air between pressure centers. Cold will continue in this whole area through Saturday.
In reaction to this, the flow aloft may become more southwesterly over the Eastern states. This would promote less chill in the Northeast but cause more storminess. The following maps are U.S. model predictions of total snowfall and precipitation from now through next Wednesday.
Is there any warmth in future? The following two maps suggest the answer is yes, but it is only temporary. This map shows projected flow aloft for next Tuesday. If you trace the origin of the air, you see a southwesterly flow of air next Monday (March 2).
New York City often has its coldest days when the air comes straight south through the Hudson Valley... rather than from the Great Lakes. This map shows how today's wind flow matches the profile for extreme cold.
There will be a non-uniform snow accumulation pattern because the precipitation will be organized in bands and blobs around which precipitation rates vary quite a bit. This map is designed to give a quick overview about expected snow accumulations: