Tuesday 9 a.m.
As winds aloft become southwesterly, mild, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico will spread all the way up the East coast. This weekend, temperatures can climb well into the 60s in Washington, D.C., and past 50 degrees in Boston. It will also be milder than average across most of the Great Lakes region through the start of the weekend.
After the mild spell, both the GFS (U.S. model) and ECMWF (European Model) show cold air advancing east and south. There are differences between the models as to how quickly and how far the first surge of cold air will advance. However, both suggest that once cold air takes over, it may be persistent. For example, the GFS ensemble mean (the model is run multiple times, then averaged) predicts that once it goes below freezing next week, it stays below freezing day and night for at least a week (the model runs out to 16 days). The video has more.
Regardless of when or how cold it gets, our dog Sam looks like he is ready. Very soon, Sam will complete his twelfth year as part of our family. As an American Eskimo dog, I suspect he naturally likes rolling around in the snow. He really liked the deep snow we had in the yard last week, so I patiently watched him play (even though I was getting cold). If you've had a beloved pet for a long time, I suspect you have shared the feelings I had watching Sam in the snow... that one of these days....
It was nice seeing Sam the Dog looking contented like he did a few years ago on a summer day...
A storm that has brought hardship and danger to parts of Texas and Arkansas with an assortment of ice and snow will send a swath of snow northeastward today and tonight. Here is a map showing our overall estimates as of 10 a.m. ET:
That could lead to tough travel at the end of the weekend. This map for Sunday at 7 p.m. ET shows where those troubles could be (north of the line with the label "snow rain line.")
This table shows the ensemble means for the next two weeks at Philadelphia: It suggests that whereas it does turn cold, any snowfall looks quite limited.
It is too early to be confident about any forecast for Christmas Day (or even the week before). However, the GFS model does go out 16 days, and it has a cold look for the Northeast exactly one week before Christmas.
As the flow aloft becomes southwesterly, mild moist air will spread northeastward from the Gulf States. In summer, this creates a hazy, very warm and humid scene for the Northeast. Now though, the warmth is slowly drained away as the moist mild air advances over cold ground. With temperatures near the saturation point, clouds form.
If each one of us lights an inner flame for just one thing- just one aspect of our lives we are thankful for, the warmth we create can light the world on Thanksgiving. The flame of warmth and love can burn so bright that no cold wind on earth can blow it out.