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Tuesday 8:30 a.m.
Drier air advanced into the northeast quarter of the nation yesterday, but its tenure is temporary and will be quickly terminated. As a high pressure area moves off the East Coast and a low pressure area forms near the lower Great Lakes, more humid air will be drawn northward... and the chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase. This looks like the kind of setup that can unleash 1-2 inches of rain in some areas. However, until we see exactly where the storm forms and how the moisture becomes arranged around it, forecasting rainfall amounts for various places is risky. The video has more.
On this date in 1918, Philadelphia had a high temperature of 106, the highest official reading ever for that city. What did the weather map look like that day? NOAA maintains an archive of weather maps for each day back to 1871. You can view them here The map for Aug. 7, 1918 is below. The map time is 1 a.m., and you may be able to see the 80-degree isotherm for that hour.
In those days, weather records were kept at the Customs House in Center City, Philadelphia. In later years, the observation site was shifted to Philadelphia International Airport. Airport locations are typically somewhat cooler than the middle of our big cities.
The wind will not roar like a lion in the Northeast on Sunday March 1. It certainly won't be lamblike. However, with more cold and snow in the forecast, it might be suitable for this group:
The surface analysis shows to low pressure area off the North Carolina coast, a large cold high pressure area in the northwest corner of the map, and a broad northeasterly flow of cold air between pressure centers. Cold will continue in this whole area through Saturday.
In reaction to this, the flow aloft may become more southwesterly over the Eastern states. This would promote less chill in the Northeast but cause more storminess. The following maps are U.S. model predictions of total snowfall and precipitation from now through next Wednesday.
Is there any warmth in future? The following two maps suggest the answer is yes, but it is only temporary. This map shows projected flow aloft for next Tuesday. If you trace the origin of the air, you see a southwesterly flow of air next Monday (March 2).
New York City often has its coldest days when the air comes straight south through the Hudson Valley... rather than from the Great Lakes. This map shows how today's wind flow matches the profile for extreme cold.
There will be a non-uniform snow accumulation pattern because the precipitation will be organized in bands and blobs around which precipitation rates vary quite a bit. This map is designed to give a quick overview about expected snow accumulations: