Tuesday 10:30 a.m.
Between now and early next week, computer models show the main belt of westerlies shifting northward, especially in the Eastern states. Last night's GFS ensemble predicted that at an elevation of 5,000 feet, the temperature will be just below freezing from Thursday through midday Friday, but then above freezing continuously through at least May 9 (the last step in the model run I was looking at).
That does not mean it will be warm the whole time. Anytime it is cloudy with the flow off the ocean (like today in the I95 corridor), it can be warm aloft but mighty chilly down here where we live. It does appear that most of the Northeast will have a mild weekend.
This map shows a cold front advancing across the Midwest and highlights the easterly flow of moist air from the Atlantic that has kept the morning gray and chill around from Maine to Maryland.
Note how far south snow is being predicted, but how no accumulation is indicated for the cities from DC to Boston. This apparently happens because the cold air rushes south, but by the time it reaches the East Coast, the storm developing over the ocean is too far east to cause any snow in the major cities.
A storm will form along second cold front. Its track and strength will determine when, where and if any snow will fall along the Northeast coast. The forecast video follows. After that, I show the GFS snowfall map from last night. It suggests no snow accumulations for the cities between D.C. and Boston. Stay with AccuWeather.com as the story unfolds. The north Georgia mountains may get snow before Buffalo does.
Here is that map. With borderline temperatures and great uncertainty on precipitation placement and amounts, the I-95 corridor from Maryland to Maine could have anything ranging from zero snow (and comments like "Where's all that snow they promised?") to the first accumulations of the season.
This map shows the pressure pattern as of 8 a.m. ET today (Monday, Oct. 27, 2014). A northwesterly flow is still in place across New England, but with weather systems moving steadily eastward, a southwesterly flow of warmer air is on the way.
All foliage colors have peaked across much of the interior sections of New York and New England, but this weekend will offer plenty of dazzling color farther south. This barn and wooded hillside scene was photographed 4 miles west of State College, Pennsylvania, this week.
A storm strengthening off the Middle Atlantic coast will cause episodes of rain and cool gusty winds from Maryland to Maine. The heaviest rain today is focused on the Washington, D.C., to New York City area. Later tonight and tomorrow, the heaviest rain and strongest winds (gusts of 30-40 mph) should spread northeastward across New England. As the storm slowly departs, the weather will improve from southwest to northeast. This map shows the circulation around the storm as of 9 a.m. ET.