Friday 10:20 AM
Today's video focuses on the weather through the middle of next week.
The greatest weather impacts today and this evening will be in the severe thunderstorm zone. The map below highlights the most threatened area. As in any tornado outbreak, the area hit will just a small fraction of the region threatened. However, because of the severity of the threat, and the fast movement of storms, it is vital for you to seek shelter immediately if a warning is issued for where you are. Since the storms are moving fast, you should not have to stay in the sheltered location very long. This map shows the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center's assessment from this morning.
A second area of concern is where accumulating snow is likely. In places like Racine and Milwaukee, the rain should change to snow by mid-afternoon and fall heavily for a few hours, leading to rapidly deteriorating driving and walking conditions. In Chicago, the coldest air will be delayed a bit, and much of the moisture might be gone before much snow has accumulated. Nonetheless, it pays to be alert for changing conditions. This map shows our early morning prediction for snowfall.
In the I-95 corridor, rain will break out tonight (snow and ice changing to rain between Boston and Portland), and there could be some fog. As a cold front arrives in the morning, some places could have a thunderstorm. After that, it will dry out and become colder as we go through Sunday and Monday.
All of the areas I talked about should experience a major warmup Tuesday (west) or Wednesday (east).
Now, a short and concise summary for the I-95 corridor:
Sunday is the only day of the year whose actual date represents a command. Yes, it will be March Fourth. But as you march forth here on March second, what is the first idea? Even though we have almost one-fourth of winter officially left, as we march forth through the period from March 2nd through March 9, which makes up roughly a third of the fourth of winter that's left, we'll have a warmup at first, then see cold dry air marching forth, then another warmup. So, it gets mild at first, then cold for the second half of this third, then warmer again. The first day, today, the 2nd, will be dry but then we will see different weather on each of the following three days, which are tomorrow and Sunday and Monday. Tomorrow, the third, will feature showers and maybe a thunderstorm followed by clearing, and it will mild. That's for the third. However, cold air will march forth on Sunday and Monday, March fourth and March 5th. Tuesday will also be chilly, making the 6th the third day of the three days starting on the fourth fourth.. It should be dry those days, and, the dry spell may not even stop on days 6 and 7, which are the 7th, and 8th of the month. For those days, Wednesday, Thursday, and perhaps Friday the 9th, warmer air will surge forth. So, that's it: On one hand it will be chilly at the end of the weekend, but by this time next week that could be secondary as warmer air marches forth. But today looks OK, which is what I said first.
More than 110,000 lightning strikes occurred in the northeast third of the nation in the 24 hours ending at 11 a.m. EDT today (June 13).
This map shows the low pressure at the western edge. The isobars help define the location of the frontal boundary between the hot and cool air masses.
This map shows the area that could have damaging thunderstorms tomorrow and tomorrow night.
The Northeast regional radar at 10 AM showed a large area affected by showers and thunderstorms:
Whereas Andrea was centered in eastern South Carolina at 8 a.m., this satellite water vapor image shows the greatest concentration of moisture is well northeast of the surface circulation center
Quite a few models are in use, and this map shows there is widespread agreement on where the center of this storm is going.