Thursday 10 AM
A front marking the boundary between excessive heat to the south and cooler air to the north is today's weather battle zone. We see an array of showers all the way from Michigan to parts of New England. As the air mass south of the front heats up, the front will be moving slowly southeastward, and this can lead to one or more lines of violent thunderstorms later this afternoon and this evening. The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the main threat zone on this map:
The highest risk zone on this map runs from Ohio to Connecticut, and the biggest concern is for the development of widespread swaths of damaging straight-line winds. There is also the risk for tornado development, especially near the eastern end of the risk area shown. If a warning is issued for your location, please move to the safest place you can find. The storms are moving rather quickly, so you should not have stay in the sheltered location very long.
Here is my video from earlier this morning. It includes the forecast for the weekend.
In the Northeast, a high pressure area now in control will be reinforced by another high from northeastern Canada. In the "what could go wrong?" department, a batch of cloudiness has appeared east of New England and has been spreading southwestward toward the New Jersey coast this morning.
The clouds over parts of the region are starting to break up, a sign that the predicted drier air from the northeast is making progress.
Cloudiness covers a large area. A few pockets of clearing show up where south winds ride downhill from mountains to lowlands. Air warms and dries with descent. Notice clearing downwind (northwest of) the Smoky Mts.
So, there could be more showers at times late next week as forest we can tell. For now we are stumped. But, it is our beleaf that this weekend you will like being outside. I know a dogwood. It may be a little cool for the beech, but you can take your dog for walk in the bark. What about next weekend? Don't ax.
If the pattern turns out damp as suggested by this map for Sunday, it could turn gray and drizzly from D.C. to New York City for early next week. If the high does not move offshore and no disturbance approaches from the west, it would be sunny and warm.
Two things stand out: (1) a warmup this weekend and early next week (the top graph), and (2) the overall dryness for the weekend and early next week. This graph is for Philadelphia.