This video includes a forecast that takes us through next weekend.
A cold front from the Midwest will reach the East Coast Wednesday. In the meantime, a large pocket of unseasonably cool air aloft will spread eastward. It will interact with the very warm and humid in place in the I-95 corridor to cause rounds of drenching showers and thunderstorms between today and Wednesday. This map from the GFS (U.S) model predicts where the heaviest rain should fall between now and the end of Wednesday.
Cooler and drier air will follow the cold front. Temperatures will stay mostly in the 60s tomorrow and Wednesday in Chicago, but will not get that cool when the drier air finally makes it to the East Coast. Last Friday, I showed the long-range GFS model, suggesting it was predicting hot weather for the Northeast at the end of next week. That idea has been (temporarily?) nixed by subsequent runs of the same model.
On this map, two such features (short waves) stand out today. The one in Ohio caused some thunderstorms in Michigan and Indiana yesterday. The other short wave is causing thunderstorms this morning from western Wisconsin to northern Missouri.
Scotty the Dog will be four-months-old in four days. On walks during hot weather, he is quick to seek out shady spots. He has yet to experience any cold weather, but he looks like he will be ready when it arrives (not any time soon!).
Erika's heavy rainfall separated into two areas yesterday. This is the Morehead City, North Carolina, radar, showing an area of heavy rain and thunderstorms that dumped more 4 inches of rain on parts of the coastal Carolinas this morning.
Tropical Storm Erika could eventually affect Florida and other sections of the Gulf Coast or Southeast, but for now it poses no threat for the Northeast. This map shows the storm as of early this morning.
The second concern is Erika. The map below shows what many different models area saying. While there is a good agreement in the short range, the longer-range spread is quite larger, with tracks ...
This picture shows where Erika is. The various models show a track toward Florida with a lot of uncertainty after that. If it does make it to land, then moves slowly (steering forces look weak), it could be a major rain producer.