Friday 9 a.m.
A low pressure area that was centered over Detroit at 8 a.m. EDT will move northeastward today. It's a storm that looks much more like a winter storm than what we often see in the summer. On the west side of the storm, gusty north to northeast winds make it feel chilly to people from Green Bay to Chicago, especially considering how hot it has been most of the summer. The air is so cool that it has interacted with the warm waters of Lake Michigan to spawn water spouts, something we predicted earlier this week.
East of the storm center, there is a southerly flow of the kind of humid air typically experienced by residents of Charleston, S.C., and Savannah, Ga. As of mid-morning, a line of heavy showers and thunderstorms stretched from east-central New York to just west of Philadelphia and thence southward to the eastern shore of the Maryland portion of Chesapeake Bay. A lesser band of showers was moving through eastern Ohio. It could evolve into a band of thunderstorms later today as it moves to central Pennsylvania... where there will be time for some surface heating to occur first.
Tomorrow looks like a pleasant, sunny day for Chicago, and it should be pretty nice all the way to western or central Pennsylvania. From northeastern Ohio or northwestern Pennsylvania into the traditional snow belts of New York state, lake-effect showers may be common tomorrow. This video has more:
This radar from just after 8 a.m. EDT shows that rain was still west of the I95 corridor in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. However, you can see why the outdoor scene can change very quickly as the band of thunderstorms moves east. Heavy rain accompanies the leading line of showers and thunderstorms.
Sam the Dog has just heard some thunder, so he wants to do what we all should do: go inside to be sheltered from an approaching storm.
This is the chameleon month of March. Always searching for a sense of identity, its days stagger through punches of waning winter, dance with the sunlit caresses of coming spring and hide behind thick clouds through the wind-swept battles between the two.
In the early to middle part of next week, there could be a hint of spring in the region from Illinois to New Jersey. This is a forecast map for next Tuesday morning. The average rain-snow line is midway between the last blue dashed line and the first red dashed line, and.... is that a daring daffodil???
There is uncertainty about how far north a storm from the Gulf states will come on Friday. This morning's NAM is rather bullish on the system. However, it suggests milder weather for the Northeast for a while this weekend before the next cold front arrives.
Many people have requested some real spring weather in the Northeast. Looking out two weeks with the European model, it still looks chilly on this flow aloft forecast for March 19.
This map shows accumulations as of 8 a.m. They have continued to increase since then in Delaware, Maryland and Virginia.
The northward extent of the snow will be determined the progress of snow that was showing up this picture from the radar serving southwest Ohio. The is what it looked like just after 7PM ET.